《大行报告》高盛降友邦(01299.HK)目标价至83元 料次季新业务价值跌42%可望见底
高盛发表报告指,友邦保险(01299.HK)将於8月20日公布今年上半年业绩,由於香港将入境旅客强制检疫措施延至今年年底,投资者已下调对集团的新业务销售预期至跌15%至20%。该行相信,投资者亦预期友邦近期的毛利率下跌,因集团需要稳定代理收入,以避免代理流失率高,估计集团今年上半年经营利润按年增长3%,较去年同期的增长8%有所放缓,主要反映在保费收入降低下固定成本的影响。
该行认为,香港损失内地旅客销售,是对友邦上半年新业务价值的最大拖累,由於旅游限制持续,估计有关情况会在下半年继续,但预计新业务价值可望在今年第二季见底。
高盛调整对友邦新业务价值预测,第二季由原来预期按年跌37%,下调至跌42%;上半年由原来预期按年跌31%,下调至跌35%;而下半年预测亦由跌10%,下调至跌27%。另外,该行调低集团股份目标价,由86元降至83元,维持「买入」评级,并列入「确信买入」名单。
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