瑞银指下半年中国经济将更显着回暖 料全年增长5.5%–6%
瑞银财富管理亚太区投资总监及首席中国经济学家胡一帆发表报告,指第二季中国经济强势复苏,由首季跌6.8%,回升至3.2%,总体来看,各项经济活动的复苏依然冷热不均。工业增加值和投资指标等生产活动率先接近甚至超过新冠疫情前的水准,消费和零售/旅游部门则依然偏软。不过,随着防疫限制措施的逐步放宽,这些部门也在奋起直追,认为上述趋势将持续,并预期在政策支持以及全球复苏背景下,下半年中国经济将更显着回暖,年增长率将回升至5.5%–6%。
该行指,固定资产投资增速明显加快,主要由房地产和基建投资拉动。预期基建投资将继续加快,至年底按年增长将加快至10%左右,来自抗疫特别国债和地方政府专项债券的资金支持将提供重要支撑。专项债额度尚余2.2兆人民币,将在第三季末完成发行。
该行又指,「居家防疫/居家办公」以及线上销售支持零售销售上扬,线上商品销售持续增长,起初是受到担心疫情发展以及保持社交距离措施的推动,随後又受到网路购物节的提振;出口增速再度超预期,进口增长触底,展望未来,出口增速有可能继续改善,下半年可望实现低双位数增长,因为在外部需求逐渐复苏的情况下,出口上升趋势已拓展至主要的一般商品。不过进一步涨势可能受制於第二波疫情以及中美关系的不确定性。
另外,该行认为PPI已经走出低谷,而且在低基数效应和周期性行业复苏下,下半年PPI降幅将继续收窄。预测全年平均值约为零,接近2019年-0.3%(较上年同期)的均值。
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