碧桂園服務(06098.HK)：收購梯媒城市縱橫，深度佈局社區傳媒，維持“買入”評級
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
投資要點
事件：2020年7月30日，公司擬分階段有條件收購城市縱橫100%股權。
點評：
收購估值合理，擁有剩餘股權收購選擇權。根據業績承諾，2020/2021/2022年城市傳媒收入不低於3.76/4.68/4.73億元，扣非淨利潤不低於0.75/1.10/1.14億元。收購分兩階段：第一階段，公司以2019年靜態PE10.5x的估價（最高不超過5.12億元）收購城市傳媒65%股權，其中35%股權對價與業績承諾掛鈎，若承諾達成則以2022年利潤計收購對價為6.9x；第二階段公司擁有收購選擇權，若標的未來三年年化增速超過15%，則公司有權以11~12倍PE對價收購剩餘35%股份。2019年城市縱橫營收3.76億元、近5年CAGR約17.4%，歸母淨利潤7895萬元、近5年CAGR約35.4%。
梯媒領先運營商，覆蓋範圍廣。城市縱橫是原為新三板上市公司，是國內領先的城市樓宇媒體廣告運營商，主業為樓宇電梯海報媒體的開發、運營和廣告發布服務，廣告點位資源豐富，一線城市以自營為主，二、三線城市以外購為主。根據公開電話會議，城市縱橫在超過240座城市覆蓋超過200萬塊廣告版位，其中約4萬個為自營。
標的平台&渠道+公司優質點位，協同效應可期。城市縱橫擁有成熟的平台和渠道資源，但增長受限於一線城市稀缺的優質廣告點位。而上市公司作為物管龍頭之一，擁有豐富的廣告版位資源。根據公開電話會議，公司在管電梯4.4萬台，電梯廣告版位約13萬個，其中近50%位於一線城市。
此次收購後，公司可將自有廣告點位由外包轉自營，通過城市縱橫的平台和渠道整理媒體資源、引入廣告商流量，依託豐富的社區物管資源實施電梯海報的精準投放，協同效應可期。長期來看，公司有望憑藉物管行業龍頭的資源和影響力，逐漸形成物業廣告聯盟，深度整合更大範圍的社區傳媒資源。
投資建議：收購梯媒優質標的，有望協助公司將廣告點位轉為自營，深度佈局社區傳媒，協同效應可期。上調2020/21/22年歸母淨利潤23.0/32.9/44.6億元（調整前預測為22.04/31.92/43.60億元）、同增37%/43%/35%（基於謹慎原則，假設2020年所得税税率恢復至25%），當前股價對應2020/21年估值33x/25x/19x，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：物業管理費市場化提價進度不及預期；社區增值服務業務拓展進度不達預期；非業主增值服務有可能受到地產行業不景氣的影響。
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