卓越教育集團(03978.HK)：聚焦強語文戰略，發力大灣區拓展，給予“買入”評級，目標價4.8港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：4.8港元
投資要點
公司是華南地區市場份額第一的區域性K12課外教培龍頭：卓越教育集團是廣東省最大及全國第五大K12課培服務提供商，提供K12班輔、個輔、素質教育以及全日制備考課程。截至 19 年 12 月，公司在中國 10個城市共運營265個培訓中心，主要分佈在粵港澳大灣區，以廣州為主。19年公司招生人次為70.9萬名，營收達到18.3億元。公司實施深耕華南、輻射全國的擴張策略，以強語文戰略進行差異化競爭，全面加速教育OMO 佈局，經營風格穩健。
廣東省區位優勢顯著，語文學科地位提升，中考逐步實施省級統籌：廣東省K12課外培訓市場規模佔全國之比達10.5%，規模CAGR達到 11%以上，參培率高於全國。持續的人口流入導致整體普高和本科錄取率偏低，較高的人均可支配收入為K12課培服務提供較強的支付意願和能力。 同時，高考改革與課改、小初高語文教材統一引導語文學科地位提升。省教育廳也逐步加強中考省級統籌，有利於公司放大語文優勢，享集中度提升紅利。
以強語文戰略進行差異化競爭，高續讀率和轉化率凸顯公司教學質量及口碑優勢。教師留任率與研發投入體現內功，重點進攻深圳市場：卓越教育聚焦強語文戰略，語文課程佔營收之比達 30%。續讀率持續提升，19 年達到83%（深圳校區約 80%），低價班轉化率達 50%，處於業內較高水平，體現過硬的教學質量。運營方面，近三年年均研發投入達 1.5 億以上，教師留任率提升至 85%，展現公司教研與管理內功的修煉。業務擴張方面，公司將加強大灣區網點滲透，重點拓展深圳市場，於深圳實行合夥人機制，調整組織架構。預計2021-22每年新開設培訓中心數達 40-50家。
首次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價4.8港元：我們認為公司當前估值已反映其和全國雙龍頭的差距，以及與深圳區域性龍頭的成長性差異。預計公司仍將持續穩健增長，20/21/22E歸母淨利潤分別為 1.37/2.24/3.01 億元，EPS 分別為 0.174/0.286/0.384 元，分別對應現價15.8/9.7/7.2x PE。我們給予公司 2021 年 15 倍目標 PE，對應目標價為 4.8港元，較現價55.2%的漲幅空間，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
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