美團點評-W(03690.HK)：20Q2季報經營及業績前瞻，預計二季度業績環比有明顯提升，維持“買入”評級，目標價247港元
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
目標價：247港元
預計美團點評將於8月下旬披露今年的二季報（參考去年的披露時間）。我們根據對行業的跟蹤和理解，對美團的20Q2季報情況進行了展望和預測。
外賣：預計單量同比恢復正增長，盈利環比改善。隨着各地餐飲及工廠、學校的陸續復工，預計外賣單量有望得到進一步復甦，我們預計20Q2單量在21億左右，同比小幅增長4%。隨着低客單單量的佔比提升，客單價環比20Q1會有所回落，但是同比仍有一定增長，預計20Q2客單在47元左右。隨着行業的復甦，預計變現率會有小幅提升，我們預計1P變現率在17.6%左右。單均配送成本小幅下降。對應1P單均毛利約為0.97元，3P約為2.43元。按1P：3P佔比65：35不變計算，合計毛利32.3億元，經營開支（三費）同比19Q2持平，對應20Q2外賣經營利潤（OP）為4.3億元。
到店酒旅：預計到店業務復甦顯著，酒店業務恢復相對較慢。隨着線下餐飲的復甦及休閒娛樂的逐步放開，我們預計20Q2公司到店業務的收入會有較好的恢復，預計20Q2到店收入在36億左右，同比-5%。而酒店的恢復相對較慢，行業數據顯示20Q2酒店行業整體入住率只有去年同期的62%；但由於美團主營的低端酒店影響相對較小，因此預計復甦速度會快於整體行業。我們預計20Q2公司酒店預訂業務收入12.3億元，同比-15%。毛利率和經營開支保持穩定，預計到店酒旅業務20Q2經營利潤為16.1億元。
新業務：預計20Q2虧損幅度在10億左右。新業務中，隨着出行活動的增加，我們預計20Q2單車的虧損環比會有所下降。但是隨着公司在新零售尤其是買菜和社區團購上投入的增加，相應的開支也有可能增長。我們預計整體20Q2的新業務虧損幅度接近20Q1，在10億左右。
預計20Q2公司整體經營利潤在10.4億元左右。其中：外賣業務貢獻4.3億元，到店酒旅業務貢獻16.1億元，新業務虧損-10億元。不考慮投資損益的影響，預計20Q2公司期內利潤為8.9億元左右。考慮到每個季度的non-GAAP利潤調整項一般在5-10億元左右（主要系以股份為基礎的薪酬開支），按7.2億元的股份薪酬開支計算，預計20Q2美團經調整利潤為16.1億元。
盈利預測與投資建議：維持“買入”評級，上調2021年目標價至247港幣。我們預測2021/22/23年美團的淨利潤分別為168/303/459億元，EPS分別為3.84/6.21/8.92元。基於對美團盈利的更好預期和更高確定性，我們上調了美團的估值和目標價。我們採用分部估值法，對外賣平台/外賣物流/到店酒旅業務分別給予2023年40/30/30倍PE計算，分別得到11241/1685/6332億元的估值，合計19258億元；然後按平均21%的折現率折現至2021年，得到美團2021年合理市值13060億元，對應14539億港幣市值和247港幣的目標價。
風險提示：疫情二次擴散、競爭格局加劇和流動性的風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
