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《大行報告》摩通下調匯控(00005.HK)目標價至35元 升渣打(02888.HK)目標價至49元
阿思達克 07-29 10:21
摩根大通發表研究報告,指看到匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)的香港盈利前景承受巨大壓力,主要是因為本港銀行同業拆息自首季以來下跌178個基點;第三波疫情出現令政府收緊社交距離措施,導致宏觀條件惡化,以及中美地緣政治升溫。

隨著匯控加劇重組,相信估值會因為集團依賴大中華地區的策略而維持低迷。另外,還看到未來派息減少的風險。維持其「中性」投資評級,目標價下調9%至35元。該行將匯控2021及2022年的經調整每股盈利預測下調5%,這是由於本港同業拆息的壓力令銀行淨利息收入減少。

該行較為看好渣打(02888.HK),投資評級「增持」,目標價由原來的45元上調至49元,認為其股價較匯控有大約30%折讓,而兩者股本回報率相若。預期2019至2022財年的撥備前盈利年複合增長率為7%,主要是受到非利息收入增長及營運開支較低等因素所帶動。該行又預期渣打2020財年的一級資本比率將增至13..4%,驅使派息比率達30至40%,但在2022年前不太可能進行回購。將其2020年的經調整每股盈利預測上調7%。

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