康師傅控股(00322.HK)：方便麪價量齊升收入上揚，毛利率擴闊推動盈利增長
機構：東吳證券
方便麪收入高速增長，飲料業務持續復甦。今年年初在公共衞生事件帶動下，集團方便麪的銷量及價格齊升，首季度收入增速或超過20%，預期第二季度受缺貨影響仍能維持較高增長，而康師傅作為方便麪龍頭商增速或高於行業平均。下半年方便麪銷售增速預期迴歸常態但仍能維持高個位數增長，全年銷售收入增速大概率超過10%。飲料業務方面，今年首季度因疫情受到衝擊，但考慮到為消費淡季實質上影響不大，隨着疫情逐步受控，加上進入夏季旺季，飲料業務有望持續復甦，預計全年飲料收入維持個位數增長。
受惠毛利率提升，上半年盈利有望高速增長。方便麪主要原材料棕櫚油的價格於今年首5個月大幅下挫逾4成，近月回升但仍較年初高位低近2成，降低生產成本。另一方面，飲料最主要包裝原材料PET，以及白糖的價格弱勢運行，前者於今年首季下跌逾2成，雖然4月起稍為回升，但由於庫存處於高位，現價仍較年初時低近15%。白糖價格於1月底開始走弱，目前相比年初時高位低近1成。由此可見，方便麪和飲料的原材料價格走低，有利康師傅的毛利率提升。加上在方便麪業務高增長及渠道銷售費用有所節省的背景下，今年上半年康師傅盈利有望高速增長。此外，公司持續對資產進行優化，於6月22日以676.43萬美元出售處於虧損狀態的物流企業頂通，預期會錄得95.54萬美元的一次性收益，有助增厚上半年盈利。
高端化趨勢不變，長期盈利能力提升空間廣闊。後疫情時期方便麪業績增速回歸常態，但公司產品高端化趨勢不變，迎合消費升級的浪潮不斷推陳出新，長期盈利能力提升空間廣闊。公司早先推出高毛利的產品速達麪館、鍋煮拉麪、全素面和日式高湯拉麪等高端化健康化品類，並持續進行產品迭帶。飲料方面，公司於2020年5月推出了健康化的無/低糖烏龍茶和0脂肪的“小酪多多”乳酸菌飲品，並推出迎合國人飲水習慣的“喝開水”熟水系列對中高端飲用水市場展開攻勢；此外，據傳其與華潤啤酒、達利食品等競購雀巢旗下銀鷺八寶粥和花生奶業務，若成功競購將進一步拓寬產品矩陣。
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