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《大行报告》美银证券:专家料内地水泥价再跌空间有限 料8月下旬复苏
阿思达克 07-20 12:02
美银证券发表报告表示,近期与内地「数字水泥」及卓创等举行会议,水泥行业专家料近期因雨灾关系会令行业需求放缓,但随着内地大型基建推动下,内地基建需求占水泥需求会升至50%占比,可抵销农村地区疲弱的需求。

该行估计,随着水泥行业需求回升,料今年销量按年跌幅收窄至2至3%;专家估计在华东及华南地区,水泥价格再下行空间有限,并料8月下旬水泥价格将会复苏。

美银证券表示,内地水泥行业需求收缩是中期威胁因素,今年上半年内地新增产能为1,400万吨,预计下半年还将再增产1,500万至2,000万吨。在扣除产能置换,行业到2020年净增加量将达到2,000万吨。从2021年起,尽管新产能将更加集中在广西,但仍在增长的需求每年可以很好地吸收2至3条生产线,而且在排放配额的不足,会迫使地方政府限制新增产能的总量。在地方和中央政府的干预下,新产能将处於可控范围内,但从中期来看,需求将是最大的不确定性。

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