牧原股份：半年狂賺百億，下半年怎麼看？
作者 | 格隆匯小編
高估值公司中報業績一地雞毛，反觀豬圈一亮業績都晃花了觀眾的眼！
這幾天豬圈企業上半年業績預告相繼出爐，牧原股份、温氏股份、新希望、正邦科技、天邦股份上半年盈利預增都超過10億元。受益於良好的業績表現，豬圈企業股價也持續上行。
圖：豬肉板塊價格走勢——日K
養豬大佬們上半年是賺得盆滿缽滿，這主要受益於“二師兄”身價的飆升。去年非洲豬瘟告一段落後，豬價在今年上半年短暫調整，然而，在非洲豬瘟和疫情的雙重疊加之下，國內生豬產能恢復不及預期，加之歐美疫情導致進口豬肉受限，供給面偏緊，生豬銷售價格於五月中旬反彈再度上行。
圖：半年生豬價格走勢
豬價上半年經歷短暫回調後，從5月低點至今，已反彈10元/公斤，當前豬價仍處於歷史高位運行。
後續豬價能飛多高，還是要看能繁和存欄等數據以及飼料等進口價格的變化，但就目前的情況而言，下半年國內生豬產能依然受限，豬價很難會出現大跌的情況。
鑑於對豬企下半年業績的明朗預期，下半年豬肉板塊仍是股市投資的主線，而有一家公司無疑是主線中的重點。
那就是——牧原股份。
首先，在豬圈狂歡的背景下，牧原股份是唯一一家半年盈利超過百億的公司。
據公司公告，上半年牧原股份預計盈利達105億-110億元，去年同期為虧損1.56億元。公司上半年共銷售生豬678.1萬頭，同比增長16.61%，銷售收入為207.20億元，同比增長202.17%。
圖：牧原股份上半年業績預告
其次，牧原股份在資本市場的表現也完全無愧龍頭企業身份。
圖：牧原股份年初至今股價上漲86%
然而，牧原股份領漲板塊的同時，也意味着及較高的估值。當前牧原股份市盈率33.50，高出整個板塊50%；市淨率也來到14.40，更是板塊平均值的兩倍以上。打鐵還需自身硬，牧原股份的體質對得起這個價格嗎？
今天我們從客觀的數據角度看，牧原股份當下的價格是否合理？是否有足夠動能支撐股價繼續上漲？
話不多説，讓我們開始解讀牧原股份的現狀。
總結
牧原股份ROIC高達40.06%，盈利能力極強。另外市淨率雖高於上市以來97%時間，處於歷史高位，需警惕風險。近兩年利潤快速上漲帶動市盈率，目前市盈率僅高於上市以來47%時間。
資金面，北向資金自進入六月份後保持3%左右流通佔比，目前佔總流通A股2.76%，另有基金持股3.68%、社保持股0.42%，頗受機構青睞。
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