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《大行報告》國盛證券:阿里(09988.HK)從流量到生態面臨激烈競爭 但相關焦慮或被市場高估
阿思達克 07-14 12:02
國盛證券近日發表報告表示,從流量之爭到生態之爭,阿里巴巴(009988.HK)似乎既面臨著來自抖音、快手等去中心化平台的流量稀釋,也面臨著騰訊(00700.HK)及其優秀的伙伴們的生態進攻。事實上,內地電商內容化和競爭生態化的趨勢已經到來,擁抱新趨勢的速度成為平台發展的焦點。

該行認為,不論是在流量的獲取和變現層面,還是在產業生態的延展層面,阿里巴巴已經站在了新趨勢的潮頭。

國盛證券認為,阿里巴巴的流量焦慮和生態焦慮可能被市場高估。事實上,阿里巴巴電商的內容布局和流量變現效率都走在了「後浪」的行列;阿里雲作為雲計算賽道的龍頭,有望在產業互聯網時代的競爭中成為阿里下一個利潤和市值增長引擎。該行預計里巴巴於12021、2022及2023財年收入達到6,525億、8,024及9,490億元人民幣,核心電商和阿里雲的三年收入複合增長率各達21%和43%;未來三個財年非通用會計準則的淨利潤預測達1,681億、2,045億及2,411億人民幣,該行予阿里巴巴目標價299元,維持「買入」評級。

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