浙江滬杭甬（00576.HK）：公路業務逐步企穩，證券業務加速轉暖，維持“增持”評級，目標價8.19港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
目標價：8.19 港元
本報告導讀：
作為浙商證券的控股股東，浙江滬杭甬在保持公路業務穩定的同時，將受益於市場邊際回暖帶來的證券業務利潤提升。
摘要：
維持目標價，維持增持評級。浙江滬杭甬的公路業務已於 5 月 6 日重新開始收費，增長企穩。證券市場自 7 月以來，加速轉暖。公司作為浙商證券大股東，證券業務盈利存在超市場預期的可能性。我們暫維持公司 2020-22 年歸母淨利潤預測 21.3/38.1/39.4 億元，公司整體價值仍被低估，維持目標價 8.19 港元，維持增持評級。
公路恢復收費，補償政策可期。2020 年疫情期間，公司高速公路業務受到車流量下滑與免費政策的雙重影響。我們預計，公司公路業務全年收入下滑約 23%。公路免費政策自 5 月 6 日結束，隨着復產復工的推進，全國高速公路車流量已恢復正增長，公司公路業務得以企穩回升。根據交通部新聞發佈會表述，我們預計公路公司免費期間的損失可獲得相應補償，補償方式大概率為延長收費期限。
證券業務加速轉暖，增長或超市場預期。浙江滬杭甬通過控股子公司上三公司間接持有浙商證券 46.9%的股權，是浙商證券的控股股東。2015 年，證券業務盈利佔公司歸母淨利潤的 32.3%，2019 年證券業務盈利較 2015 年下降約 50%，佔歸母淨利潤比例下降至 12.5%。2020年 7 月以來，證券市場加速轉暖，公司證券業務超市場預期增長的可能性增加。
公司整體價值仍被低估。若我們將公司路產按照謹慎假設貼現，將證券業務按照淨資產 1 倍 PB 進行估算，則 2019 年底公司 DCF 價值達338 億元人民幣。市場高估了疫情與公路免費政策對企業的負面影響，同時對公司的再投資給予了較大折價。而公司當前股價對應 2019 年股息率達到 6.2%，高股息能夠降低再投資不確定帶來的風險。
風險因素。證券業務的走向難以判斷，補償政策的出台尚有不確定性；短期分紅政策或受疫情影響而改變；再投資的節奏與結果存在不確定性。
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