野村:下調友邦(1299.HK)目標價至72.61港元 評級“中性”
野村將友邦保險(1299.HK)的目標價由72.73港元下調至72.61港元,維持“中性”評級。
野村發表報告稱,受香港及東盟市場影響,友邦保險的新業務價值增長疲弱勢頭一直持續到第二季度,預計友邦第二季整體新業務業績將下跌21%,其中香港市場下跌40%,東盟方面下跌15%,內地市場及其他地區在上半年的水平基本持平,意味着第二季的整體NBV下降15%。
野村還表示,預計上半年友邦的香港 NBV 將跌40%;由於跨境管制持續進行,令香港市場方面繼續受挫,第二季友邦保險的首年標準保費(APE)下降53%,首季度跌37%,主要由於在公共衞生事件中進行了跨部門控制,友邦首年標準保費下降了78%。該行表示過去12個月,特別是今年上半年訪港內地遊客明顯減少。
野村指出,自2020年第二季度以來公共衞生事件受到控制,友邦的國內業務正在復甦,預計第二季的 NBV 增長將達到雙位數,將有助於減緩首季度業績的下滑趨勢,並在下半年及以後的時間進一步恢復。展望未來,友邦中國為在未來3-5年內主要增長動力,隨着市場的開放,相信友邦保險將在內地市場將獲得更多的省份營業執照,從而擴展市場份額。野村預計友邦中國在公共衞生事件完全恢復後,NBV將增長30%以上。

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