時代中國控股(01233.HK)：城市更新業務進入收穫期，給予“買入”評級，目標價20.00港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：20.00港元
投資要點
首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價20.00港元。時代地產深耕粵港澳大灣區，重倉廣州和佛山，土地儲備充足，銷售保持高速增長。特別對於城市更新業務的儲備，在政策支持下降加速轉化，未來將為公司帶來優質的土儲。我們預計公司2020-2022年營業收入分別為500億元、605億元和737億元，分別同比增長17.9%、20.9%和21.8%；核心淨利潤為63.5/77.2/94.5億元，同比增長162.%/21.6%/22.3%。首次評級覆蓋公司給予“買入”評級，目標價20.00港元，基於2020/2021年5.5倍和4.5倍PE，較公司的NAV折讓19%，較當前股價還有23%的上升空間。
?提前佈局城市更新，變現模式成熟：時代中國提前佈局城市更新業務，截止2019年底已經儲備120個項目，預計可轉化土儲達到4300萬平米。在政策支持下，城市更新項目轉化將加速，變現模式成熟。預計未來每年可轉化貨值超過500億，為公司補充優質土儲，控制整體成本。
?深耕粵港澳大灣區，土儲結構優化：公司發起於廣州，深耕廣州和佛山為主的粵港澳大灣區城市，土儲和銷售公司佔比都超過90%。公司正進入長沙、成都、武漢及杭州等重點二線城市，優化土儲結構。
?銷售規模穩步增長，產品服務精進：公司的合約銷售規模保持高速增長，2016-2019年複合增速達到42%。2020年銷售目標823億元，預計2020-2022年將恢復20%以上的銷售增速。公司打造了豐富的產品線，並提供優質的物業管理服務，滿足不同層級客户的需求。
?財務風險可控，派息豐厚：公司在高速增長的同時確保財務安全，淨負債率控制在60-70%之間。境內外有多種通暢的融資渠道，融資成本逐年下降（2019年底為7.5%），預計2020年有望再降低一個百分點。公司保持30%的派息率，派息豐厚穩定，目前股息收益率超過6%。
風險提示：宏觀經濟增長放緩；行業調控政策加嚴；流動性收緊；公司銷售不及預期；人民幣貶值；城市更新項目進展不及預期。
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