廣發證券予中芯(00981.HK)H股合理值43.6元 科創板上市將對港股成長期正向反饋
廣發證券發表報告表示,中芯國際(00981.HK)昨日公布《首次公開發行股票並在科創板上市發行公告》,公司將以每股27.46元人民幣在科創板發行16.86億股(佔發行後股本23.62%),對應募資額為462.87億人民幣,據計算,發行後公司每股淨資產將增厚52%(該行認為對應的股價漲幅市場已充分認知)。
該行認為,中芯每股合理價值43.6港元,維持「買入」評級。雖然「華為事件」是中芯國際基本面的潛在隱憂(華為佔公司收入比例約20%,此外先進制程進展或打折扣,但是由聯合首席執行官梁孟松的坐陣及公司管理團隊的穩定是先進制程落地是關鍵;第二是中芯先進制程仍可由比特大陸、飛騰、芯原等逐步承接,因此該行仍樂觀看待中芯受益半導體國產化的前景。
中芯在上海科創板每股27.46元人民幣的發行價格下,廣發證券將公司的合理估值(市賬率)上調至3倍,同時預測公司2020至2022年歸母淨利潤分別為2.43億美元、2.1億美元及2.17億美元。
該行指,科創板或將對港股形成長期正向反饋。公司在追逐先進制程及持續擴大成熟制程產能以承接國產化的背景下,每年40億至50億美金的資本開支需求或為常態。在此背景下,該行認為科創板融資通道的打開為公司先進制程前景及中長期發展提供了重要的資金保障,中芯港股或將長期受益科創板帶來的正向反饋。
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