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中國水務(00855.HK)2020:進一步擴展供水核心業務,重申“買入”評級,目標價10.50 港元
格隆匯 07-03 14:15

機構:中泰證券

評級:買入

目標價:10.50 港元 

2020 年財年股東淨利潤同比增長 19.7%

公司於昨天(6 月 29 日)公佈了業績。2020 年財年(年結:3 月 31 日) 股東淨利潤同比上升19.7%至港幣 16.39 億,高於市場預測的 15.65 億,雖然比我們較樂觀估計的 17.85 億低8.2%。供水業務收入同比增長 13.0%至 71.0 億,佔總收入的 81.7%。毛利率由 2019 年財年的41.7%上升至2020年財年的43.2%,因建築收入佔總收入比例相應地由44.8%下跌至42.5%(見圖表 1)。

康達環保成功融入公司,主力污水處理業務

中國水務於 2019 年入主康達環保(6136 HK;未評級)後,成功提升此聯營企業的盈利能力。我們相信康達環保已經成為中國水務的污水處理業務主力軍 (見圖表 2)。

中國水務近月新增多項供水項目,遠超市場預期

不計算康達環保,中國水務的水務總處理能力(含在建及擬建項目)由 2019 年 3 月底的1,481 萬噸/日增長至 2020 年 3 月底的 1,519 萬噸/日(見圖表 3),期內新增供水項目的處理能力為33萬噸/日。遠超市場預期,公司於今年4月起,新增四個位於河南省鞏義市、原陽縣、鎮平縣及貴州省玉屏縣的供水項目,總處理能力合計為56.9萬噸/日,已經高於公司 2020 年財年全年新增能力。我們預料公司會進一步擴展供水核心業務。

微調目標價,重申“買入”評級

基於2020年財年業績,我們分別下調2021-2022年財年盈利預測7.5%及9.1%(見圖表4),並相應地將由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的目標價由10.80港元降低至10.50港元,這對應9.7 倍 2021 年財年市盈率和 89.2%上升空間(見圖表 5-6)。重申“買入”評級。

風險提示:(一)水源受到污染、(二)水價提升幅度及進度低於預期、(三)匯率風險。

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