復宏漢霖-B(02696.HK)：抗體龍頭崛起，甘霖惠及全球，首次“買入”評級，目標價64.00港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：64.00港元
單抗類似藥進度領先，奠定第一階段收入基礎
公司利妥昔單抗類似藥國內首家獲批上市，2019 年實現總銷售額約 1.5 億元；曲妥珠單抗類似藥已獲得歐盟CHMP 推薦意見、並有望在國內首家獲批上市；阿達木單抗已經提交上市申請，有望於 2020 年下半年獲批上市；貝伐珠單抗有望在 2020年下半年提交上市申請。在四大單抗類似藥中，公司的利妥昔和曲妥珠均取得領先地位，阿達木和貝伐珠處於第二梯隊，體現出強大的抗體藥研發綜合實力，也將成為公司第一階段的業務基礎。
PD-1奮起直追，差異化佈局搶佔腫瘤免疫大市場
公司的抗PD-1 單抗HLX10 雖起步較晚但進展迅速，且在日益激烈的 PD-1競爭中進行了差異化佈局：1）適應症差異化：除佈局肺癌、食管癌、肝癌等熱門大癌種之外，公司還佈局了 MSI-H/dMMR、乙肝等具有特色的適應症；2）市場差異化：公司針對小細胞肺癌、鱗狀非小細胞肺癌、胃癌開展了國際多中心臨牀，是國內為數不多開展 PD-1海外臨牀的企業之一，創新全球化將在其他市場構建先發優勢。
“內外功”俱臻上乘，抗體藥綜合競爭實力強大
公司的綜合競爭實力強大，“內功”穩紮穩打：1）臨牀開發速度快，有望佔據先發優勢；2）獲得歐盟GMP證書，質量達到國際一流水平；3）生產規模和成本控制優秀，在未來價格競爭中擁有更多籌碼。“外功”勇猛精進：1）全球聯動研發佈局；2）曲妥珠單抗即將在歐盟正式獲批；3）PD-1開展國際多中心臨牀；4）廣泛建立國際合作關係。綜合來看，公司在抗體藥行業多個方面“內外功”俱臻上乘，綜合競爭力十分強大。
盈利預測、估值與評級：
公司是中國抗體藥龍頭之一，在單抗類似藥和國際化方面進度領先，綜合競爭實力強勁。我們預測 2020~2022年實現收入5.98/15.08/28.43 億元，同比增長 558.1%/152.1%/88.5%。我們採取針對公司研發管線的絕對估值為主要估值參考，給予公司整體估值 316 億元（約 345 億港元）。根據當前股本 5.43 億股，對應目標價約為 64 港元。首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：研發進度不達預期的風險；銷售情況不達預期的風險；全球化拓展不達預期的風險。
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