信義光能(00968.HK)2020年半年度業績預告點評：業績預增符合預期，光玻價格有望觸底回升，維持“買入”評級，目標價7.60港元
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.60港元
公司預計2020H1歸母淨利潤同增35%-50%，增幅符合預期，維持2020-2022年EPS預測為0.38/0.48/0.58港元，現價對應PE為17/13/11倍，上調目標價至7.60港元，維持“買入”評級。
▍2020H1業績預增35%-50%，增幅符合預期。公司預計2020H1歸母淨利潤同比增長35%-50%，對應12.85-14.28億港元。公司業績增長的主要因素或包括：1）雙層玻璃和雙面雙玻產品需求增加，帶動銷量增長；2）2020H1光伏玻璃平均市場價格（預計單玻約26.8元/平米）或高於2019H1平均市場價格（單玻約25.2元/平米）；3）產品結構優化，將更多產能分配到高附加值的雙玻產品；4）原材料及能源成本下降，以及生產效率提升。
▍光伏玻璃價格觸底，庫存逐步消化，下半年價格有望逐步回升。上半年受海外新冠疫情擴散導致部分光伏需求延後，3、4月光伏玻璃行業庫存壓力持續加大，平均庫存週期一度升至30天左右，帶動產品價格明顯下降（4月以來3.2mm單玻價格降幅達17%），目前3.2mm、2.5mm、2.0mm光伏玻璃產品主流報價基本穩定在24、22、20元/平米左右。在國內存量項目“630”搶裝以及海外需求弱復甦的帶動下，5月以來光伏玻璃行業庫存已逐步消化，龍頭廠商庫存週期恢復至20-25天，光伏玻璃價格築底，部分供給較為緊缺的雙玻產品價格出現嘗試性漲價。我們預計隨着下半年海外裝機復甦以及國內新增項目快速推進，光伏玻璃需求有望明顯回暖；同時行業新產能釋放受疫情影響有所推延，供需格局將迎明顯改善，Q4或再現行業供給缺口，光伏玻璃價格有望逐步回升。
▍新產能受疫情影響推後，盈利穩健保障業績持續增長。目前公司光伏玻璃在產日熔量7800噸。受疫情影響北海及蕪湖各2000噸/天新產線投產時間將分別推遲至6月及年底，預計全年有效產能約314.5萬噸，對於產量或達3.5億平米。儘管上半年光伏玻璃降價明顯，但我們測算公司憑藉生產效率和成本控制優勢，仍有望維持30%以上毛利率，有望維持全年利穩量增，業績穩步增長。
▍風險因素：光伏裝機不及預期，公司產能釋放延後，光伏玻璃價格及成本承壓。
▍投資建議：公司半年度業績預告符合預期，維持2020-2022年淨利潤預測為30.4/39.1/47.2億港元，對應EPS預測為0.38/0.48/0.58港元，現價對應PE為17/13/11倍，考慮到疫情逐步得到控制且疫後光伏需求回升有望超預期，上調目標價至7.60港元（對應2020年20倍PE），維持“買入”評級。
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