中國生物製藥(01177.HK)：腫瘤板塊強勁，研發投入增加，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
業績符合預期，腫瘤板塊增長強勁
2020 年一季度中國生物製藥實現營收 62.22 億元（+0.2%），歸母淨利潤 8.62 億元（+0.6%），基本歸母淨利潤 8.34 億元（-14.6%） 。在疫情影響下，公司營收端與去年同期基本持平，符合我們的預期。分主要板塊看，抗腫瘤板塊實現營收 19.84 億元（+61.2%） ，增長強勁，佔總營收的比例提升至 31.9%。腫瘤板塊的主要增長動力來自於安羅替尼、雷替曲塞等大品種的持續放量，阿比特龍、伊馬替尼、吉非替尼等受益於帶量採購的品種的增長。
研發投入保持增長，重磅品種持續收穫
公司一季度研發投入 9.94 億元，其中費用化 9.74 億元（+12.6%），研發費用率上升至 15.7%（+1.7pp） 。公司多年來大力投入研發已經進入收穫期，未來三年，公司預計每年將獲得超過 30個藥品批件，其中不乏峯值銷售在 10 億元以上的大單品。今年 5 月，與康方合作的 PD-1單抗的上市申請獲受理，重組 VIII 因子的上市申請也已獲得受理。公司重點打造的腫瘤領域和呼吸領域已進入收穫期，對生物藥領域的長期佈局也將見到成果。
風險提示：
帶量採購影響超出預期、在研品種上市時間不及預期
投資建議：轉型創新關鍵期的龍頭公司，維持“買入”評級
中國生物製藥是具備長期投資價值的醫藥龍頭公司，在腫瘤、呼吸、生物藥三大戰略領域的佈局已進入收穫期：腫瘤領域已成為營收佔比最大的中流砥柱，未來將持續驅動公司業績增長；呼吸領域將在重磅單品布地奈德的帶領下實現大幅增長。受到疫情和集採的影響，肝病、心血管和鎮痛板塊有一定壓力，我們預計集採品種在 2020 年大幅下滑後，銷售緩慢萎縮。我們維持對公司的盈利預測，預計 2020~22 年的淨利潤為 31.6/38.2/47.1 億元，同比增長 17%/21%/23%；並維持公司的合理估值區間為 13.1~16.0 港元（對應 22年 PE 32~39x），相對當前股價有 7%~31%增長空間，維持“買入”評級。
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