东骥庞宝林:港股6月後或现双底反弹 下半年上望24,000点
东骥基金管理董事总经理庞宝林表示,现阶段市场风险众多,预期港股经历早前轻微反弹後,未来将横行或稍为向下寻底,恒指最差或跌至22,500点,本月国安法细节落实时美国或有更多口头上或实际行动,令月内股市将较波动。
但他相信,随着疫情趋稳、美国大选临近及更多中概股来港第二上市,刺激成交增加;加上美联储放水下美国十年期债券回报仅0.65厘,远低於恒指的4厘,若6月份港股不跌穿上次低位,则有望形成「双底」反弹,下半年逐步回升,上望24,000点,甚至年底升至25,000至26,000点。
他解释,虽然除原有的中美贸易战、疫情战、科技战外,美国亦正在「打政治牌」,就国安法制裁香港,令本港市场成为磨心,但相信随着美国总统选举临近,当地经济将受到一定支持,对香港的影响亦会减少。他又提到,美国目前面对疫情及当地示威,问题若未妥善处理,美元或中止强势。
庞宝林指,年初至今强积金股票基金表现仍为负,但5月份已录增长,认为股票表现胜於债券,但倾向「拣股不拣市」,看好新经济外亦鼓励投资者留意旧经济,例如早前大幅调整的地产股,以及现时下跌风险有限的领展(00823.HK)。美股方面,他透露,旗下基金有关注出现复苏迹象的零售股及奢侈品公司。
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