光大證券:美團點評(3690.HK)供給端多元化帶來長期利好 評級“買入”
光大證券發佈研究報告稱,無論是為外賣平台帶來高端商户供給,還是在到店業務改善競爭格局,公共衞生事件對美團點評(3690.HK)帶來了供給端長期利好。光大證券維持其“買入”評級。
由於外賣業務客單價及UE改善幅度超出預期,光大證券上調美團點評2020年收入/淨利潤/調整後淨利潤分別至1132/31.1/64.5億元;並相應小幅上調2021-2022年營業收入為1748/2349億元,淨利潤為183/339億元,經調整利潤為220/375億元。
光大證券表示,公共衞生事件加速了餐飲外賣線上平台供給多元化的步伐,高端商户自身經營水平及營銷預算均處於行業領先位置,商家結構的優化能夠為美團平台提供更大的商業化變現空間。
同時外賣業務單位經濟模型將繼續改善,光大證券對影響外賣單位經濟模型的三個關鍵指標作出如下判斷:1、預計客單價逐季小幅回落,但仍顯著高於去年同期水平;2、補貼與廣告對衝,預計全年變現率保持平穩;3、增值税政策影響有限,預計單票成本保持平穩。
光大證券續稱,衞生事件後到店板塊的恢復情況比外賣業務更為緩慢。雖然部分到店業務(尤其是火鍋、燒烤等品類)已經實現了業務的正常運轉,但母嬰、KTV、酒旅等品類的交易額及收入恢復仍然需要時間。從競爭格局角度看,公共衞生事件對部分到店業務起到了正面作用。以酒旅業務為例,衞生事件促使大量中小OTA平台加速退出市場,預計隨着2020年3-4季度需求的逐漸恢復,行業頭部公司將獲得更大的市場份額與盈利空間。
同時光大證券認為,新業務中的“美團買菜”“美團閃購”等業務模型將逐漸恢復常態。但公司仍然有望通過加大投入,以規模優勢向供應鏈與履約端尋求更大的效率改善空間,從而在中長期實現業務鏈路的貫穿打通和全面複製。

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.