You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》摩通:未見港資本明顯外流跡象 指中美角力極端情境下 難量化對內銀影響
阿思達克 05-27 11:25
摩根大通發表報告,中國全國人大明天(28日)將審議「港版國安法」,市場關注或引致中美關係緊張、香港街頭示威等活動。該行按其初始評估,假設美國撤銷對本港特殊地位,相信對香港經濟的直接影響或有限,因美國出口佔香港去年總體GDP僅1.2%,但同時亦指出或對香港資本市場及金融行業構成不明朗,該行料美國一旦作出回應措施,相信只會針對個人或個別實體,而不會直接對準香港的資本市場基建體系。

該行指未見香港出現明顯資本外流跡象,首先本港住宅樓價今年以累計僅輕微調整,儘管中國政府上周公布將審議「港版國安法」,本港一手住宅物業銷售為近周強勁,同時留意到中方公布上述建議後,觀察香港每日資金情況未見有資本外流,而港股近日亦見回穩。

就對本港銀行的潛在影響方面,摩通指港銀股自中方公布將審議「港版國安法」後股價累跌4%,雖然該行對港銀行基本因素看法負面,但指調整或可為收集中銀香港(02388.HK)帶來機會,指中銀具較強資本及維持穩定派息。

至於中美角力領域已延伸至金融領域,該行嘗試從三個極端情境估計,但仍難以量化潛在對內銀股盈利的影響。此三個極端情境預測評估,第一個極端情境假設是美國禁止中國內銀利用美元作結算及交收,該行指早已在報告中提示了投資者相關潛在風險;第二個極端情境假設是中國面臨持有美國資產的風險,中國於今年首季持美國相關資產佔其外匯儲備約35%,指外匯儲備波動或會引致人民幣及資本外流。

第三個極端情境假設是中國國企在美國資產會面臨風險,按六大內銀(包括農行(01288.HK)、中行(03988.HK)、建行(00939.HK)、工行(01398.HK)、交行(03328.HK)及招行(03968.HK))在美業務,佔相關內銀總資產僅0.7%,內銀所持外匯計價的債券,佔其總體平均負債僅0.8%。(wl/k)

~

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account