“二師兄”連續13周掉價!概念股要熄火?
作者:丫丫
來源: 東方財富網
5月22日,農業農村部部長韓長賦介紹稱,豬肉價格已連續13周小幅下降,並表示後市豬肉價格不會再大幅上漲。受此影響,當天A股市場上多隻豬肉概念股下挫。
豬肉價格連續13周下降
據央視網,農業農村部部長韓長賦22日在接受採訪時稱,“豬肉價格最近確實下降了,批發市場已經連續13周小幅下降,比最高的時候下降了23%,大體每公斤下降了12塊錢”。
國家統計局數據顯示,今年2月以來,國內鮮豬肉現貨批發價持續環比下跌,其中4月環比跌幅達7.21%,每公斤價格為44.14元。

方正中期期貨分析稱,4月份生豬市場價格大幅回落,目前我國的學校及餐飲行業尚未達到滿復工狀態,導致本就處於年後消費低谷的豬肉消費需求繼續疲軟狀態,再加上豬肉價格偏高,消費者消費積極性有所減弱,而國儲凍豬肉有序投放市場、進口豬肉量增多壓制市場積極性,且生豬出欄體重偏高均增加市場供應,後期隨着氣温的升高,大肥豬的需求將進一步減弱,養殖户前期積壓的肥豬出欄意願較強,生豬市場呈現階段性“供過於求”狀態,預計5月份繼續處於大體重生豬消化階段,價格繼續承壓,生豬市場均價或跌破 30元/公斤水平,但標豬供應速度難有明顯提升,整體價格下跌空間也將有限。
八成豬肉概念股下跌
隨着豬肉價格回落,A股市場上的豬肉概念股也表現疲弱。
據東方財富Choice數據,22日豬肉概念板塊跌0.97%,板塊內除羅牛山、牧原股份和傲農生物等幾隻個股上漲外,近八成個股下跌。

龍頭企業走勢疲弱
從豬肉龍頭企業來看,5月以來,包括温氏股份、牧原股份、新希望在內的豬肉養殖龍頭均走勢疲弱。其中新希望股價月初以來跌逾14%,主力資金淨流出規模近15億元;另外,温氏股份股價同期跌幅也超過10%,主力資金淨流出11億元。

華創證券表示,鑑於非瘟疫情或長期存在,生物安全防控能力和母豬存欄量決定上市豬企成長性和業績穩定性。
後市豬肉價格會不會大幅上漲?
展望後市,豬肉價格會不會再漲,成為投資者關心的一個話題。當前,市場人士傾向於認為豬肉價格後期不會大幅上漲。
中信期貨分析稱, 無論從能繁母豬存欄變化還是仔豬補欄來推測,本輪豬週期將在8月後開啟持續下降通道,但8月之前可能存在中度調整,比如當下。8 月之後預計豬價下跌也不會一帆風順,因三元母豬性能較低可能提前大量淘汰,從而豬價高位運行時間拉長,年度內很難回到週期前水平,年度均價或在25元/kg以上運行。
與此同時,方正中期期貨也認為,長期來看,隨着生豬產能恢復,豬價也將逐漸穩定並趨於向下調整,下半年生豬市場產能有望恢復至往年正常水平80%左右,全年生豬市場均價有望維持在30元/公斤水平。
此外,在22日的採訪中,農業農村部部長韓長賦稱,當前生豬生產恢復勢頭不錯,實現今年的生豬生產目標可以預期。從政府層面鼓勵推動生豬生產,從市場方面,由於市場行情好,主體積極性提高,勢頭很好。隨着生豬生產的恢復,供求關係也會逐步改善,後市豬肉價格不會再大幅上漲。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.