一文了解券商於小米(01810.HK)公布季绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
小米集团-W(01810.HK)今早股价造好，盘中曾高见13.16元，券商指其首季绩绩优预期，管理层对下半年前景指引正面，多间大行上调目标价。该公司昨收市後公布首季纯利按年跌30.8%至21.64亿人民币，高於本网早前综合4间券商预测上限的19.34亿元人民币；期内每股盈利0.091元人民币；按非国际财务报告准则计算，经调整净利润按年升10.6%至23亿人民币，高於本网早前综合9间券商预测中位数22.34亿人民币。
公司首季营业额按年升13.6%至497.02亿元人民币，高於本网早前综合10间券商预测中位数的496.8亿人民币。首季公司智能手机部分收入按年增12.3%至303亿元人民币，首季智能手机销量按年升4.7%至2,920万部。受惠5G等高端机型拉动，首季公司全球智能手机平均售价按年升7.2%，智能手机分部毛利率按年升4.8个百分点至8.1%。
【季绩胜预期 候海外复苏】
瑞银发表报告表示，小米首季旗下智能手机於内地市场份额开始提升，受惠5G产品动力、电讯商新推广优惠及华为面临的压力。该行调查显示未来一年中国手机换机率稳定，其中倾向小米手机的受访者轻微上升，海外手机市场占有率上升较该行预期更快，海外MIUI月活跃用户已为中国大陆的两倍，物联网参与率亦开始上升。
瑞银行为，海外互联网服务平均每用户收入目前或微不足道，但相信情况将在明年随MIUI月活跃用户规模增加而改变。该行亦相信公司在商业对商业物联网、及互联网服务变现的工作取得稳定进展。该行上调对小米目标价，由13.8元升至15港元，维持「买入」评级。
高盛指小米首季业绩胜预期，收入及经调整净利率均高出高於市场预期。该行引述小米管理层指，中国及海外手机需求快速反弹，印度及欧洲手机激活率近期已分别回复至疫情况60%及90%水平。该行上调对小米2020年至2022年收入预测7%至11%，基於公司持续进入高端及5G市场导致手机平均价价上升，同时高端手机引入高端消费者，产生更高互联网收入。该行上调对小米目标价由12元升至14.3港元，维持「买入」评级。
但摩根大通则估计，小米第二季将面临挑战，料智能手机销付运将按季下跌33%，主要受疫情所影响，但相信海外市场於今年下半年仍会强劲。
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本网最新综合8间券商对小米集团-W投资评级及目标价，5间券商上调目标价，7间给予「买入」、「增持」、「跑赢同业」或「跑赢大市」评级：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
瑞信│跑赢大市│15元->15.3元
中金│跑赢同业│13.5元->15元
美银证券│买入│14元->15元
瑞银│买入│13.8元->15元
高盛│买入│12元->14.3元
摩根士丹利│增持│14元
花旗│买入│12.6元
摩根大通│中性│12元
券商│观点
瑞信│毛利率及纯利胜预期，海外业务复苏牵引下半年展望
中金│建议买入，迎来印度及欧洲手机销售复苏
美银证券│手机市占上升支援互联网业务增长，并推股价值重估
瑞银│首季业绩稳固
高盛│经调整净利及收入胜预期，所有业务增长稳固
摩根士丹利│互联网服务表现胜预期，海外业务复苏上轨道
花旗│首季业绩显着胜预期，建议逢低买入
摩根大通│次季展望艰难
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