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信銀國際廖群料兩會仍會提GDP目標 全年經濟或增長3%
阿思達克 05-18 10:38
中信銀行國際首席經濟師廖群接受電台訪問後表示,內地首季的GDP按年下跌6.8%,是內地有史以來最差的季度經濟增長,主要是受到疫情影響。他預期,第二季度的GDP增長為3%,在供給方面看到4月份的工業生產增長不錯,錄3.9%的升幅,但零售方面表現仍弱,意味供給的復甦速度快於需求復甦。

他認為,雖然內地疫情有基本平息,但仍有境外輸入個案,因此大家仍抱小心態度,未見有報復性消費。他相信,5月份及6月份的情況會繼續好轉,但好轉情況或不及市場預測。

市場揣測中央會否在兩會內公布年度GDP目標,廖群認為仍是會有相關公布,因為有目標才會有動力,料全年GDP增長3%左右。

他相信,中央有必要推出大力寬鬆政策,尤其是現時美國及歐洲都採取無限寬鬆策略,但方式或與2009年不同,會有選擇性地逐一推出。而在貨幣政策方面,除了降準外,相信下半年存貸款利率有下調空間。另外,仍有減稅降費的空間。

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