《大行報告》瑞銀下調恆大(03333.HK)目標價至14.9元 較低端城市前景疲弱
瑞銀發表研究報告,指出近日市場調查發現內地低線城市房地產市場需求正在減少,預期三線或以下城市土儲佔比達65%的恆大(03333.HK),將受高槓桿率及銷售前景疲弱所影響。
該行指出,由於恆大擁有較高負債率,加上對戰略投資者有合約銷售承諾,相信比起平均銷售價格,恆大將首先較重視其銷售率,預期利潤風險較高,今年至2022年毛利率料由35%降至30%,今年銷售淨利率更可能跌至25%。因此將2020至2022每股盈利預測下調30%至32%,對應該公司首季減價促銷及對其毛利率較保守的估算。
瑞銀指,恆大年初至今已累計下跌26%,落後同業平均水平8個百分點,以今年預測股息率9.3%計,認為當前估值合理,維持2020年預測市盈率5倍不變,下調目標價32%至14.9元。考慮到該公司將繼續降低負債比率,今年底料降至141%,維持「中性」評級。
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