神州控股(00861.HK)：公司業績穩健，大數據智慧產業增速顯著，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：東興證券
評級：強烈推薦
2020年4月28日，公司發佈2019年財報。2019年全年實現營收177.27億港幣，同比增長16.2%，實現歸母淨利潤3.02億港幣，同比增長101.8%。實現毛利潤31.5億港幣，同比增長8.4%。4月15日晚，公司發佈公告，集團智慧產業鏈業務、智慧城市業務及其他業務於2020年3月31日止第一季度收入以人民幣計算，實現約24%增長。
大數據科技生態鏈業績顯著增長，智慧產業鏈推動盈利能力提升。2019年公司智慧產業鏈整體營收約為53.74億港幣，同比增長42.26%，智慧城市業務整體營收約為3.27億港幣，同比增長0.5%，神州信息實現營收115.04億港幣，同比增長9.33%。智慧產業鏈的智能化存儲解決方案和大數據平台經營效率持續改善，推動盈利能力顯著提升。
不斷增加大數據技術研發投入，提升服務競爭力。2019年，公司繼續投入研發，科捷每小時產出增長31%，科捷B2C日單量增加40%，智慧城市簽約金額增加19%，同時在銀行核心系統市場佔有率位居第一。科捷依託“供應鏈+大數據+AloT”戰略和雲服務平台，打造系列產品，提升服務競爭能力。
疫情影響智慧產業鏈需求增長，智慧城市“深耕”模式初見成效。2020年一季度，智慧產業鏈收入對比去年同期增長約22%，其中由於電商業務隨着疫情期間網購需求而大幅上升，簽約額較去年同期大幅增長約62%。智慧城市基於“燕雲DaaS”研發的“抗擊疫情”系列軟件產品，平均縮短用户50%的項目實施週期，被廣泛應用於大數據產業建設。
公司盈利預測及投資評級：我們預計公司2020-2022年淨利潤分別為1.31、1.93和2.88億元，對應EPS分別為1.77、2.60和3.89元。當前股價對應2020-2022年PE值分別為149、102和68倍，維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：神州信息業務規模較大，關注賬期方面風險；行業競爭風險；疫情帶來經濟基本面下滑。
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