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海螺水泥(00914.HK):新一輪水泥漲價趨勢已啟動,維持“買入“評級,目標價67.90港元
格隆匯 05-04 10:01

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:67.90港元

2020年第一季度業績略好於我們的預期。總收入同比降23.9%至232.07億元人民幣。我們估計自產水泥產品的銷量和平均售價分別同比降21%和9%。整體毛利率主要因低利潤的貿易業務收入佔比降低而大增4.1個百分點至33.9%。股東淨利同比降19.2%至49.13億元人民幣。

華東新一輪漲價趨勢已啟動。華東水泥價格已自4月下旬起開始觸底反彈。我們認為收費公路恢復收費將擴大地區間的價差,將利好海螺水泥的核心區域。我們認為基於對水泥和熟料的差異化定價策略,海運熟料的影響將維持可控。

將我們對2020/2021/2022年的每股盈利預測分別上調2.9%/3.0%/3.1%。我們主要1)下調了單位成本假設以反映煤價超過預期的下滑;2)略微上調了對自產水泥產品的銷量和平均售價的假設以反映我們對水泥市場更為樂觀的預期;3)基於2020年第一季度的萎縮下調了對貿易業務的銷量假設。

上調目標價至67.90港元並維持“買入”。我們認為新冠疫情對公司全年業績衝擊微不足道的預期已更為確定,而公司業績將在2020年其餘季度內維持環比正增長。我們最新的目標價對應9.6倍/9.4倍/9.3倍的2020-2022年市盈率和2.0倍的2020年市淨率。

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