招金礦業（01818.HK）：礦產金產量和成本拖累，業績低於預期，維持“買入”評級，目標價11.2港元
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
目標價：11.2港元
核心觀點
公司一季度黃金產量下降，綜合成本上升，業績低於預期。公司聚焦黃金主業，受益於礦產金產量恢復和工藝提升對成本的控制，疊加疫情的不利影響逐步消除，預計2020年業績因金價上漲而穩步提升。給予公司2020年16倍EV/EBITDA估值，對應目標價11.2港元，維持“買入”評級。
2020年一季度實現淨利潤0.81億元，同比下滑38.6%，業績低於預期。根據公司2019年第一季度報告，報告期內，公司實現營業收入13.7億元，同比下降5.9%，實現歸母淨利潤0.81億元，同比/環比下降38.6%/50.2%，實現經營性現金流量淨額31.5億元，同比上升1.7%，業績低於預期。
2020年一季度業績主要受產量減少和成本上升拖累。業績的主要影響因素：1）2020年Q1黃金均價358元/克，同比/環比分別+24.81%/+5.27%，皆高於對應公司主營增長，黃金為公司主業，受疫情影響黃金產量有所下降；2）2020年Q1營業成本8.55億元，同比上升2.7%，毛利率37.6%，同比下降5.2pct，在產量下降的情況下，黃金單位綜合成本有所上升，使季度毛利潤同比減少1.1億元。整體來看，預計公司利潤的不利因素將在二季度逐步消除，全年業績維持穩步增長。
收購海域礦業，未來擴張潛力巨大。公司於2015年獲得海域金礦63.86%股權，截止2019年底黃金資源量高達562.4噸，儲量達到212.2噸，平均品位高達4.4克/噸。建成投產後預計歸屬公司權益產量約9.6噸，較公司當前自產金產量增長達到50%。海域金礦品味顯著高於公司當前的在產礦山，投產後克金成本預計低於公司現有水平，在提升產量同時將顯著提升公司自產金業務的利潤率。
風險因素：金價波動風險；黃金產量不及預期；海域金礦投產不及預期。
投資建議：公司聚焦黃金主業，依託旗下優質礦山實現穩健經營。預計未來海域礦業投產將帶來公司礦產金產量的大幅提升，公司業績將顯著增厚。維持公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤預測值為7.29/9.24/14.47億元，對應2020-2022年EPS為0.22/0.28/0.44元。給予公司2020年16倍EV/EBITDA估值，對應目標價為11.2港元，維持“買入”評級。
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