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歐菲光(002456.SZ):業績反轉邏輯成立,光學+蘋果新機驅動Q2確定性高
格隆匯 04-28 14:26

27日盤後,歐菲光發佈2020年一季報,業績增速與業績快報一致。

 2019年Q1增勢良好。公司2020年第一季度歸母淨利潤為1.41億元,同比大幅增長154.89%,若加上公司在疫情中向紅十字會的捐款2,000 萬,同比增速更高;經營淨現金流6.17億元,同比大幅增長467.67%。同期公司實現營收為97.65億元,由於特殊時期開工時長大幅下降,營收呈小幅波動同比下滑8.36%,但隨着國內疫情得到控制,預計第二季度開工情況能大幅恢復。整體來看,第一季度公司保持訂單穩步釋放,核心業務產品營業收入和出貨量均實現較快增長,彰顯龍頭優勢。

疫情衝擊不改業績反轉趨勢。除了增長速度延續Q4,歐菲光的盈利能力也進一步提升。2020年第一季度,歐菲光毛利率同比改善2pct,環比改善0.18pct,主要得益於高端產品佔比提高及成本的有效控制;另外,期間費用率同比降低0.25%ROE同比提升4.47%,改善明顯。2020Q1春節提前疊加新冠疫情影響,預計公司開工時間較去年同期出現顯著下降30%~50%,理論上將造成較大的影響。在疫情的衝擊下,公司的成長性及盈利能力仍延續2019年Q4的積極趨勢,證明業績反轉的驅動力較為強烈。

大客户新機發布,業績確定性高。歐菲光是唯一綁定華為、蘋果雙寡頭手機廠的攝像頭模組廠商。2019年年報顯示,公司來自第一大客户的收入達161.97億元,同比上漲33.23%,佔總營收比重為31.16%,表明二者合作進一步加深綁定。蘋果4月發佈的全新iPhone SE表現良好,發貨週期已經全面延長至 1-2周,供應尚較緊張,利好下游歐菲光,並有望在二季度提振蘋果總體銷售表現。另外,今年蘋果將在在後置攝像頭中增加一顆TOF鏡頭,高端攝像頭佔比進一步提升。蘋果的光學總成本從iPhone 6p時代的13美金提升至iPhone11 pro max74美金,預計未來繼續保持高增速。歐菲光作為穩定合作方,無論是短期還是中長期的業績確定性都較強。

龍頭首先受益光學賽道成長。第一季度多款旗艦新機發布,

光學繼續擔當創新主線。可以看到多攝、 潛望式、 TOF逐漸變為旗艦機主流;主攝像素普遍升至48/64MP, 甚至108MP。歐菲光作為光學賽道龍頭,預計優先成為主供應商。其高端雙攝模組在重點客户旗艦機型的供貨份額持續增加,並率先推出三攝像頭模組,成為主力供應商。根據產業調研,公司目前已成為華為 Mate 30 系列產品、P40系列產品的三攝供應商之一。隨着國內疫情得到有效控制,國內需求迅速恢復至去年同期水平。儘管海外市場疫情的能見度較低,不可避免造成短期擾動,但是不改光學賽道的中長期邏輯。

光學鏡頭的高景氣度預計會延續到2021年底,歐菲光的業績反轉有望持續。歐菲光作為全球光學賽道龍頭,綁定蘋果及華米OV,確定性較強。目前歐菲光PSTTM)僅為0.73,值得關注。

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