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《大行報告》摩通下調澳門賭業股目標價 首選新濠(00200.HK)銀娛(00027.HK)
阿思達克 04-28 10:15
摩通發表的研究報告指,第二次就疫情下調澳門博彩業預測,以反映博彩收入接近零以及估計旅遊禁令有機會放寬的估算,該行顯著下調2020年的預測,但就改變了2021年的盈利預測,相信屆時事情塵埃落定博彩股估值將較合理,同時該行經調整後的目標價仍存約40%的上行空間。

該行指出首季博彩收入按年跌60%,按季則跌約58%,當中貴賓廳按季跌53%而中場則跌約61%,但認為現時的數據未能反映需求及基本面。按月來看1月份賭收跌11%、2月份跌88%,而3月份則跌80%,相信4月份賭收將是21世紀以來最差,料跌幅將達95%,主要因為香港及內地在3月底推封關措施。

摩通指相信5月後將陸續有好消息,認為有機會旅遊禁令會自5月起逐步放寬,並估計廣東將放寬針對澳門的隔離措施,而海陸空交通及個人遊簽證將陸續在6月份分階段放寬,而到7-8月暑假則會全面回復個人遊及旅行團簽證。

摩通認為放寬旅遊禁令將解鎖需求,雖然現時難估算復甦的情況,但該行認為賭收將最少回復上升趨勢,而賭收復甦將反映「最差的情況已過去」,容許股份反彈。該行又指逆境使人更堅強,對疫情過後的博彩需求不乏大膽估算,同時亦認為估計2021年賭收或EBITDA可達2019年類近水平的想法並非不可能,主要因為2019年澳門博彩週期已見底,基數相對低,加上將有高質素賭場應市,相信可將房間數提升20%,是自2016年以來最大增幅,另外內地經濟復甦、政府注入流動性等,均有望帶動需求及簽證方面的增長,相信對2021年需求復甦有幫助。

該行予澳門博彩股「增持」評級,但稍為調整了選股次序,現時認為新濠國際發展(00200.HK)及銀河娛樂(00027.HK)為該行首選,其次為金沙中國(01928.HK)、澳博控股(00880.HK)、美高梅中國(02282.HK)和永利澳門(01128.HK)。

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