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郭思治: 大市暂只属反弹後之正常回吐
阿思达克 04-24 10:08
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,市场对WTI原油期货5月发生负值所带来的冲击似已消化,从近两天油价之表现看,事件该暂告一段落。只是在供仍过於求的情况下,国际油价暂只是摆脱不断下跌之弱势,惟却未能快步反弹。或者待美国及油组再进一步达成减产协议後,油价才能喘定。而最关键的是国际航班能逐步复飞及社区能解封,因为只要市场之需求回复正常,国际油价在供求平衡下该可重越每桶20美元。需留意的是F三星原油期(03175.HK),由於目前之期油合约已转为9月份,故即使6、7月油价能反弹并重越20美元一桶,惟对该ETF之刺激亦不大,因敏感度不高。

至於大市,经过周三(22日)升99点及周四(23日)升83点後,由於已出现连升两日,加上恒指大部分时间均抓紧24,000点左近,故单从技术上看,整体市势之表现并不算太差。以恒指已连续三天报收在10天线(24,123点)之下计,表现确稍带不明。惟直到目前一刻止计,恒指仍未正式跌穿20天线(23,799点),故只能视大市暂属急步反弹後之正常回吐及消化而已。

(笔者为证监会持牌人)~

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