《大行报告》大摩料港银股首季业绩仍强 但未来迎挑战 降渣打(02888.HK)目标价至46元
大摩发表研究报告指,港银即将进入公布首季业绩的时间,汇控(00005.HK)率先在4月28日派成绩表,渣打(02888.HK)和中银香港(02388.HK)紧随其後,相信首季表现会是今年最好,但未来数季港银会面对挑战,主要担心信贷成本问题。
该行指,净利息收入表现相对强劲,主因3月联储局减息前的较高息率带动,一个月HIBOR於首季平均处於180点子,按年升49点子,首两月平均约为195点子。因此首季净息差表现强劲,但未来数季会反映低息环境的影响。同时预期汇控和渣打贷款增长温和,分别为1%及3%,中银香港贷款按年增长约9%,带动净利息收入增长。
该行又指,交投活动於首季十分活跃,带动交易佣金收入增长,但其他费用收入受累企业活动、消费活动减慢,交易收入则因市场波动而有不同表现。整体拨备前盈利预期有持续改善。
该行预期,市场将聚焦於各银行管理层对收入、资产质素和派息政策的展望,并对行业维持审慎看法,未来数季经营环境会变得困难。
该行予汇控目标价44元,评级「减持」;渣打目标价为46元,评级「与大市同步」;中银香港目标价24元,评级「与大市同步」。
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