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惠譽:香港降級對其覆蓋港銀無直接評級影響
阿思達克 04-21 16:09
評級機構惠譽發表報告指,香港主權信貸評級由「AA」降至「AA-」對其覆蓋銀行沒有直接評級影響。該行相信港銀財政狀況具韌性,但其在經濟收縮下生存能力評等(VR)將迎來壓力。

報告稱,從過去危機累積的充裕流動性及資本緩衝,在多輪宏觀審慎措施下進一步加強,屬支持本港銀行現時VR水平的重要評級實力。自疫情爆發以來香港沒有走資跡象,2月銀行系統存款按年增2%。香港銀行系統亦是2008至2009年金融海嘯時流動性流入的受惠者,銀行結餘由2008年第三季的6億美元增加至2009年底的340億美元。

惠譽表示,本港銀行對面對收入減少及信貸成本增加的壓力,但料其盈利能力及現時法定儲備能在不顯著侵蝕資本緩衝的情況下能消化部分額外支出。

由於疫情大流行,惠譽料本港今年實際本地生產總值(GDP)將收縮5%,銀行VR亦可能受疫情程度及時間長度、以至政府回應措施影響,因資產質素及盈利能力轉弱。當惠譽預期銀行財務狀況惡化並持續超過個別評級容忍水平時,負面評級行動的可能性就會增加。

報告稱,是次經濟震盪程度料高於香港以往經歷過的危機,源於香港自2003年CEPA執行起更依賴內地入境旅客及中港經濟融合。有關增長勢頭已放緩,去年本港實際GDP收縮1.2%,最新失業率更升至4.2%,該行料在明年復甦跡象出現前,失業率今年底止或升至高達6%。

惠譽表示,在具挑戰的經濟環境下本港銀行資產質素料惡化,但惡化幅度料受政府多輪紓困措施所部分紓緩。報告稱,對大部分銀行而言,對無抵押消費者貸款的參與仍有限,而中小企貸款多數受抵押品或政府擔保所支持。該行在評估港銀時,已考慮內地相關貸款的高度集中風險。不過,相對於銀行個別信貸狀況,倘資產質素惡化或其他財務數據惡化情況超預期,惠譽或採取負面評級行動。

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