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新天綠色能源(00956.HK):2020年首季運營表現合乎預期,維持“買入”評級,目標價2.30港元
格隆匯 04-21 09:35

機構:中泰國際

評級:買入

目標價:2.30港元

2020 年首季風電發電量及天然氣售氣量分別同比上升1.6%及12.7%

公司 2020 年首季風電發電量同比上升 1.6%至 2,671 吉瓦時,相等於我們全年預測之27.0%,差於預期,低於 2019 年同期的 29.7%實際比率。公司 2020 年首季天然氣售氣量則同比上升 12.7%至 1,322 百萬立方米,相等於我們全年預測之 37.7%,優於預期,高於2019 年的 36.3%實際比率。整體而言,2020 年首季運營表現合乎我們預期。

A 股 IPO 申請已獲通過;合理期望中期特別股息

中國證監會於上週四(4 月 9 日)對公司的 A 股 IPO 申請進行了審核。公司當晚表示,根據中國證監會網站發佈的公告,是次 A 股 IPO 申請已獲通過。公司上月公佈 2019 年業績時,宣佈不派發股息。公司當時解釋,為了法規原因而順利完成 A 股 IPO 計劃,故不派發股息,但相信完成A股IPO計劃後,將可以“補發”股息。我們因此合理期望,有別於過去,公司今年將派發中期特別股息。

 維持“買入”評級

待公司公佈 A 股 IPO 進一步詳情,我們維持盈利預測,並保持由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的目標價於 2.30 港元(見圖表 1 和 2),這對應 4.9 倍 2020 年市盈率和 48.4%上升空間。維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:(一)項目開發延誤、(二)應收賬款風險、(三)併網電價下跌。

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