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綠色動力環保(01330.HK):首季運營理想,迎接疫情退卻,重申“買入”評級,目標價4.80港元
格隆匯 04-17 13:11

機構:中泰證券

評級:買入

目標價:4.80港元

2020年首季上網電量則同比上升20.1%

公司近日公佈了理想的首季運營數據。公司2020年第一季垃圾進廠量及上網電量分別同比上升14.7%及20.1%至174萬噸和4.7億度,佔我們全年預測之20.5%和19.4%,與2019年同期之21.1%和18.4%實際佔比相若。運營數據顯示,肺炎疫情對公司的影響不明顯。事實上,在疫情期間,公司日常運營項目沒有停頓。所有在建項目也早已經復工。

迎接疫情退卻

我國近月疫情開始緩解,多個城市獲得不同程度的解封。我們期望疫情全面退卻後,報復性的零售消費需求將會漸漸呈現,導致生活垃圾處理量增加,從而有利公司業務。公司不斷擴容。

截至2019年12月31日,公司運營中的垃圾處理能力達到19,610噸/日。我們早前保守估計2020年新開工項目和新投產項目之垃圾處理能力分別為3,700噸/日和5,700噸/日。如果經濟恢復理想,我們不排除公司加快項目發展的可能性。

重申“買入”評級

我們維持由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的目標價於4.80港元(見圖表1和2),這對應11.8倍2020年市盈率和53.4%上升空間。重申“買入”評級。

風險提示:(一)項目延誤、(二)應收賬款風險、(三)併網電價下跌、(四)運營成本上升。

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