野村:料內險行業下半年將有更多銷售 首選平保(2318.HK)及財險(2328.HK)
野村發表研究報告指,新冠肺炎令中國保險業2月至3月線下銷售活動減少,對首季新業務價值增長產生暫時影響,而在現時較低的利率趨勢下,首選中國平安(2318.HK)(601318.SH)及中國財險(2328.HK)。
野村指,中國平安、中國太保和中國太平的首年度保費在首季或跌20%,令其新業務價值錄按年錄得雙位數跌幅。另外,雖然在中國人壽和新華保險在疫情爆發之前進行了強勁的預售,令其首季表現較佳,但2月至3月的雙位數下降幅度或會與同業一致。
野村續指,友邦保險可能會在今年首季錄得新業務價值高單位數跌幅,比去年下半年更差,其香港和內地業務主要受內地防控工作所影響。
野村預計,從4月起內地大部分地區疫情已受控,最近線下銷售活動亦增加,預計下半年將有更多的銷售活動。該行續指,隨着人們對保險意識的增強和需求加強,預計今年剩餘的三個季度新業務價值按年將保持高單位數增長。
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