正榮地產(06158.HK)：業績穩健，銷售靚眼，投資集中強二線，維持“增持”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：增持
事件
正榮地產發佈2019年業績：2019年公司實現營業收入325.6億元，同比增長23.1%；歸母淨利潤25.1億元，同比增長18.2%；歸母核心淨利潤23.1億元，同比增長20.4%；基本每股收益0.59元，每股股息0.1港元。
點評
業績增長穩健。2019年公司實現營業收入325.6億元，同比增長23.1%；歸母淨利潤25.1億元，同比增長18.2%；歸母核心淨利潤23.1億元，同比增長20.4%；業績增長較為穩健，毛利率為20.0%，同比下降2.8個百分點；利潤率下降主要由於2019年售價較低的項目佔交付項目的比例有所增加。2019年公司實現銷售額1307億元，同比增長21%；銷售面積844萬平米，同比增長31%。從區域佈局看，公司在長三角、海峽西岸、中部、環渤海、西部銷售金額佔比分別為55%、24%、10%、7%、4%；從城市能級看，在一線、二線、三線城市佔比分別為4%、78%、18%。
拿地集中強二線，土地儲備規模穩步上升。2019年公司新增土地41幅，總建築面積560萬平米，其中85%位於二線城市，權益比例持續提升至73%，進一步深化全國六大區域佈局。公司土儲豐富，目前公司佈局全國30個城市，總土儲建面達2615萬平米，從區域分佈看，公司在長三角、海西、中部、西部、環渤海、珠三角土儲面積佔比分別為36%、29%、16%、6%、11%、2%；公司土儲總貨值達4500億元，每平米土地成本僅4647元，約74%土儲位於一二線城市。
控槓桿成果顯著，融資成本有所回落。截至2019年末，公司資產負債率81.6%，同比下降1個百分點；淨負債率為75.2%，同比提升1.2個百分點。公司融資結構持續優化，總債務規模586.7億元，同比增長26%，其中境內銀行借款、境內其他借款、公司債、境外優先票據分別佔比42%、20%、9%、29%；加權融資成本7.5%，同比下降0.3個百分點。
投資建議：銷售順利破千億規模，“1+6+X”完成全國化佈局戰略。公司作為銷售增速較快的成長性房企，槓桿得到有效控制，融資成本持續走低。注重收益、風險可控，預計2020-2022年公司EPS分別為0.70、0.84、1.01元人民幣，對應PE分別為6.3、5.3、4.4倍。維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：行業銷售波動；政策調整導致經營風險（棚改、調控、税收政策等）；融資環境變動（按揭、開發貸、利率調整等）；企業運營風險（人員變動、施工、拿地等）；匯率波動風險。
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