匯豐控股(00005.HK)：深耕亞洲市場，打造全球性財富管理中心，給予公司“中性”評級，目標價45.22港元
機構：興業證券
評級：中性
目標價：45.22港元
首次覆蓋給予公司“中性”評級，目標價45.22港元。我們分別採相對估值（PB）及絕對估值（股利貼現模型）對公司進行估值，給予公司“中性”評級，給予公司目標價45.22港元。公司目標價較現價有12.6%的升幅。2020-2022年，匯豐控股目標價對應的PB分別為0.61、0.58及0.55倍，建議投資者關注。
短期暫緩派息不影響公司高股息屬性：短期雖受新冠肺炎影響，公司暫停派付2019年度第四季度股息，但是HSBC分紅政策使得公司的歷年股息收益率（6.58%）處於行業領先水平。匯豐控股的薪酬激勵制度也使得其高管的報酬直接與公司業績相掛鈎，中長期穩定派息比率可維持。
零售銀行+亞洲市場定位，中長期盈利能力改善：歐洲及美國市場十年期國債收益率水平接近零利率拉低公司利潤水平。2015年，集團明確提出“重回亞太”（PivottoAisa）的發展目標。2019年，匯豐重申其在中國地區的業務機會。截至2019年末，亞洲市場的除税前利潤佔比達106.7%；增速領先的零售銀行業務佔比達到35%，其中，超過90%由中國香港地區貢獻。未來，匯豐計劃將零售銀行及財富管理業務、環球私人銀行業務兩項業務合併，打造全球性財富管理中心，並逐步剝離盈利能力較弱的業務條線，提升公司中長期盈利水平。
中國大陸市場金融行業對外開放加速，與HSBC長期戰略佈局契合：2019年7月，我國發布了11條金融業對外開放措施，此後，明確表示鼓勵外資銀行在中國內地經營發展。截至2020年1月，匯豐內地50多個城市設立了約170個服務網點，是內地網點最多、地域覆蓋最廣的外資銀行。
風險提示：1）全球經濟下行導致息差收窄；2）亞太地區業務發展不及預期；3）歐洲及北美地區大幅下滑；4）新冠肺炎全球範圍惡化超預期帶來的資產質量大幅下降及業務開展受阻；5）公司經營風險。
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