雅生活服務(03319.HK)：外拓持續發力，新三年計劃值得期待，給予‘’買入‘’評級，目標價47.1HKD
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
目標價：47.1HKD
事件：公司公佈2019年全年業績，合計實現營業收入51.27億元，同比增長51.8%，其中物業管理服務、外延增值服務、社區增值服務分別貢獻收入28.30、18.12、4.85億元，分別同比增長74.1%、23.9%、67.9%；綜合毛利率為36.7%，較2018年下降1.5個百分點，其中物業管理、外延增值和社區增值服務分別實現毛利率25.3%、49.8%、54.4%，分別較2018年-2.1pct、+2.1pct、+3.5pct，物業管理服務的毛利率有所下降的主要原因是公司積極進行外拓承接且收併購企業貢獻的收入有所提升。2019年，公司實現股東應占利潤12.31億元，同比大幅增長53.7%，歸母淨利率為24.0%。
外拓發力，規模實現跨越式增長。截止至2019年底，公司在管面積為2.34億平米，較2018年大幅增長0.96億平米，主要原因是來源於第三方物業開發商的在管面積高速增長；同期合約面積為3.56億平米，絕對值增長1.26億平米，絕對值增量高於在管面積，合約面積/在管面積比值為1.52倍。2020年3月，公司臨時董事會批准了中民物業收購事項，未來隨着中民物業和新中民物業的並表，公司在管面積將突破5億平米。
完美完成第一個三年規劃，新三年規模關注收入、利潤及支撐增長點。公司制定了2020-2022年新的三年規劃，致力於將收入結構中物業管理服務、外延增值服務、社區增值服務的佔比調整為7：1：2，與此同時將堅持輕資產模式，並積極參與國企混改，獲取優質項目。我們有理由相信公司未來的發展將量質同步，實現高質量增長。
首次覆蓋，給予公司買入評級。考慮中民物業將於2020年並表、新中民物業預計於2021年並表，預測公司2020-2022年EPS為1.32、1.70、2.18元，對應的PE為25.9、20.1、15.6倍，給予2021年25倍估值，目標價47.1HKD。
風險提示：非業主增值服務受疫情影響；關聯方銷售不及預期
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