旭輝控股集團(00884.HK)2020年3月銷售點評：銷售短期暫弱，全年目標積極，維持“強推”評級，目標價8.51港元
機構：華創證券
評級：強推
目標價：8.51港元
事件：4月3日，旭輝控股公佈，2020年3月公司實現合同銷售金額101.0億元，同比下降47.0%；實現合同銷售面積62.5萬平，同比下降39.3%。合同銷售均價16,200元/平，同比下降12.6%。
3月銷售101億、前3月銷售同比-35%，20年計劃銷售2,300億。3月，公司銷售金額101.0億元，環比+304.0%、同比-47.0%；銷售面積62.5萬平，環比+353.0%、同比-39.3%，銷售同比下降主要源於肺炎疫情影響；銷售均價16,200元/平，環比-10.8%、同比-12.6%。1-3月，累計銷售金額224.0億元，同比-34.9%，較前值-15.0pct；累計銷售面積138.9萬平，同比-28.3%，較前值-12.5pct；累計銷售均價16,100元/平，同比-9.3%。20年，公司預計可售貨值達3,800億元，其中一二線及準二線佔比89%，20年銷售目標2,300億元，對應同比+15%，對應可售貨值去化率60.5%，鑑於公司深耕供需關係良好的一二線熱點城市，且佈局集中在長三角、中西部、環渤海等城市羣，可售貨值充裕望助力銷售穩增，並隨權益比例提升，權益銷售增速計劃將更高。
前3月拿地160萬平，前3月拿地/銷售面積比115%，拿地積極。根據公司月度通訊，3月，公司新增1幅地塊，位於杭州，新增規劃建築面積16.5萬平，對應總地價21.4億元，平均樓面地價12,977元/平米，拿地權益比為100%。1-3月，公司新增規劃建築面積160.4萬平，同比-36.9%，拿地銷售面積比115%，拿地相對較積極；對應總地價106億元，同比-40.9%；平均樓面地價6,594元/平，同比-6.3%，拿地/銷售均價比為41%。公司通過公開市場、合作併購、舊改、商業勾地等多元化方式擴充優質土儲，公司土儲較充裕、聚焦於核心二線城市，有望助力後續穩健發展和結算利潤率穩定。
投資建議：銷售短期暫弱，全年目標積極，維持“強推”評級。旭輝控股起步上海，高品質全國化，深耕一二線，聚焦城市羣，銷售實現高增長，融資成本上市後持續下行，負債率一直安全可控，近幾年利潤率穩定，實現規模、利潤率、槓桿率三者動態均衡發展。公司佈局聚焦一二線+城市羣，預計銷售和業績有望穩增。我們維持公司2020-22年每股收益預測分別為1.03、1.24、1.49元，現價對應20/21年PE分別為5.5、4.6倍，維持目標價8.51港元，並維持“強推”評級。
風險提示：新冠肺炎疫情影響超預期、房地產調控政策超預期收緊
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