中芯國際(00981.HK)：我們對“上調1Q20指引“的幾個判斷，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：方正證券
評級：強烈推薦
事件：2020年4月7日，中芯國際公告上調2020年一季度收入及毛利率指引，收入指引從原先環比增長0%至2%調整為環比增長6%至8%，毛利率指引從原先21%至23%調整為環比增長25%至27%。
擴產初見效，供給端得到保障。根據公司4Q19業績會，2020年公司預計擴建30kwpm8寸產能（天津、上海、深圳），20k12寸產能（北京）。大部分擴產將在Q3及Q4貢獻營收。考慮到4Q19已接近滿產，預計小部分擴產將體現在一季度，貢獻營收增長。
FinFET產線尚未開始折舊，新訂單新價格，改善盈利水平。（1）根據公司折舊定義，產線產出達到3kwpm或設備movein6個月後開始折舊，公司FinFET產能截至4Q19為3kwpm，預計3月/7月/12月分別達到4k/9k/15kwpm，假設單價4200美元/片，則截至4Q19UTR=20.3%，3月/7月/9月觸發折舊的UTR分別為75%/33%/20%，考慮到新產線產能爬坡進度，以及設備搬入時間，我們判斷一季度FinFET產線尚未開始折舊。而14nm在4Q19已貢獻769萬美元營收，FinFET產線營收擴大預計是公司毛利率改善的原因之一。（2）考慮到公司成熟製程持續滿產（4Q19UTR=98.8%），預計部分客户為了提早獲得產能搶佔市場，具有提價意願。部分訂單提價，進而導致產品結構優化，預計是毛利率改善的第二個原因。
國產轉單持續，疫情不改雲端及基站計算芯片。需求需求端分為兩大主線：（1）國產轉單。受到貿易摩擦及海外疫情影響，部分國內IC設計廠有轉單到大陸的意願，中芯國際作為大陸晶圓代工龍頭，優先受益，這條主線是非週期性的。（2）基站、服務器、5G手機、IoT等產品備貨。對於週期性需求，基站及雲端計算芯片本次受疫情負面影響較小，疫情催生的在家辦公反而提高了雲端計算及存儲需求。部分終端消費電子產品雖短期受挫，但一方面庫存緩衝了對上游代工的影響，另一方面purefoundry的模式讓公司有更多種類訂單儲備。預計2020下半年CIS、PMIC、指紋IC、藍牙IC等產品仍需求強勁，助力公司在擴產情況下產能利用率達到“傳統旺季”水平。
投資建議：半導體行業已處於上行週期，中芯國際2020年將重啟增長，同時先進製程研發進展順利。我們預計公司2020-2022年實現收入36.87/40.78/44.54億美元，每股淨資產為1.29/1.35/1.42美元，對應當前市值的PB為1.33、1.27、1.20倍，維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：疫情或對2Q20業績產生小幅影響；擴產後折舊提高或使2H20毛利率承壓；技術研發不及預期；行業競爭加劇；中美貿易摩擦加劇。
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