交銀國際：疫情下三大民航受打擊 東航(0670.HK)有望率先復甦
交銀國際對國航(0753.HK)、南航(1055.HK)及東航(0670.HK)作出研究報告，對三大航H股維持“買入”投資評級，目標價分別下調10.3%、16.5%及8.2%
報告指，中國國航19年總淨利潤為64億元（人民幣﹒下同），收入為1402億元，分別低於報告預期23.1%和3.4%。總乘客收益率同比下降2.2%，但可用座公里在19年保持穩定增長，同比增5.2%。
由於新冠肺炎擴散至海外以及旅行禁令升級，報告預計第二季的國際運輸量將進一步下滑，下滑幅度同比超過90%。但國航憑藉其龍頭地位，強大的現金儲備和高信貸額度，仍能抵受疫情的衝擊。
由於估值不高，加上長期驅動因素未變，報告對國航Ｈ股維持“買入”評級。然而，疫情會對今年上半年的盈利產生重大影響。因此基於20年0.9倍的市淨率，預計上半年的需求將持續放緩，將目標價從8.04港元下調至7.21港元。
南方航空19年淨利潤為26億元同比下降8.8%，較報告預期的低57.4%，由於成本增速高於預期。總收入1543億元，同比增長7.4%，較預期低1.9%。
相較於國航和東航，報告認為南航目前具有更高的靈活性以提高短途貨運業務，從而提升貨運收益，國航由於樞紐在北京，其航空的限制比其他國內樞紐更長。報告維持南航Ｈ股“買入”評級，但將目標價從5.87港元下調至4.9港元，基於20年預測市淨率0.8倍。儘管疫情受控時間的不確定性繼續困擾著股價，相信市場已經計入新冠肺炎的影響持續到今年6月。因此，即使在需求完全反彈之前，任何對全球爆發曲線趨平的信號均可能立即成為股價催化劑。
東方航空19年淨利潤和收入分別為32億元和1282億元，分別同比增長18.3%和5.2%，低於預期23.2%和2.3%。因需求疲弱和運力穩定增長，客運收益率同比下降3.3%。
儘管新冠肺炎在很大程度上推遲了今年的進展，但在大興機場的佈局最終將利好東航的長期增長。報告認為，鑑於東航龐大的國內航線網絡，國內需求的逐步恢復可能首先反映在東航的客運量增長。
考慮到新冠疫情對今年第一、二季度的影響，下調20－21年的預測以反映客運量下降、收益率下降和固定成本佔總成本約40%。報告預計，第二季度全球航空股仍將持續承壓，故將Ｈ股目標價從4.22港元下調至3.87港元，基於20年0.85倍的市淨率，低於5年平均水平，暫時維持買入評級。
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