《大行報告》美銀證券上調碧桂園(02007.HK)目標價至10元 評級「跑輸大市」
美銀證券發表的研究報告指,碧桂園(02007.HK)去年業績表現符預期,對於受疫情影響下公司仍維持今年合約銷售增長目標10%感鼓舞,但相信今年及之後其利潤亦會受壓,主要因為銷售單價下降及土地成本增加,考慮到公司有較大的合約銷售基礎,而現時入帳收入已趕上其預售規模,認為未來盈利增長有機會每年放慢5%至10%,但派息比率將維持30%水平。此外,該行認為現時碧桂園機械人業務的盈利可見性及削減開支潛力可見性較低,故重申「跑輸大市」評級,但考慮到盈利預測提升,將目標價由9.3元升至10元。
該行指出,去年碧桂園核心盈利按年增18%至400億元人民幣,高於該行預測2%,而收入則遜預期,但毛利率表現則好過預期,去年下半年銷售、一般及行政開支受控,而去年每股派息57分人民幣,按年增長17%,與每股核心盈利增長相符。該行將公司2020至2022年每股盈利預測升3%至8%,以反映合約銷售增長預測加快。
美銀證券指出,受疫情影響碧桂園預期今年去化率或會由去年的72%降至67%,相當於預期今年合約銷售增長可達10%,至6,080億元人民幣,該行認為往後未入帳銷售(約7,000億元人民幣)的毛利率約24%,料會拖累公司整體毛利率,而去年土地成本上升及銷售均價下降,亦反映利潤受壓。
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