永達汽車(03669.HK)：新車銷售持續增長，售後及汽車金融潛力可期，維持“買入”評級，合理價值為8.72港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：8.72港元
核心觀點：公司2019年收入與淨利潤穩步增長。永達汽車披露公司2019年業績公告。永達汽車2019年總收入為627.07億元，同比增長13.4%，增幅較去年提高了4.3pct。其中，新車銷售業務/售後服務業務/金融保險業務收入分別同比增長13.3%/15.6%/4.5%。公司2019年綜合毛利率為10.9%，較去年的10.98%下降0.08pct；歸母淨利潤為14.73億元，同比增幅為17.55%，歸母淨利潤率為2.35%，同比增長0.08pct。
汽車銷售業務逆勢增長，豪華車業務表現突出。永達汽車2019年新車銷量為19.74萬輛，較2018年上升11.6%。豪華品牌車型銷量為12.86萬輛，同比增長15.5%，其中，保時捷品牌銷量同比增長25.4%，寶馬品牌銷量同比增長13.5%，對豪華品牌車型的銷量形成較強支撐。2019年公司新車銷售業務毛利率為2.35%，同比微幅下降0.02pct。
售後業務與汽車金融業務發展穩健，毛利貢獻較高。2019年公司售後業務毛利率為46.37%，同比提升0.17pct，毛利佔比達70%，實現進一步提升。金融保險業務方面，自營金融收入為5.11億元，同比下降6%，代理金融保險業務收入11.06億元，同比增長10.2%。
公司售後業務與汽車金融業務增長潛力較大，維持“買入”評級。我們預計2020-2021年EPS分別為0.94/1.12人民幣元/股，當前價格對應2020年P/E為5.4倍（以3月25日公司收盤價計算），低於過往歷史3年1-YP/E平均值（8.2倍P/E）。我們給予公司合理估值8.2倍2020EP/E（過往歷史3年1-YP/E平均值），對應合理價值為8.72港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。汽車終端銷售未能有效反彈，售後業務和汽車金融業務發展不及預期，消費需求不足導致汽車經銷市場經營出現困境。
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