安踏體育(02020.HK):受到新型冠狀病毒的影響但表現將好於同業,維持“買入“,下調目標價至69.80港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:69.80港元
2019年業績依然強勁。收入同比快速增長40.8%至339億元人民幣。FILA收入同比大幅增長73.9%,並貢獻了總收入的43.5%(2018年為35.2%)。毛利率同比提升2.4個百分點至55.0%。2019年產生了6.33億元人民幣的分佔聯營企業虧損。淨利潤同比增長30.3%至53.44億元人民幣。末期股息為每股0.360港元,全年派息比率為30.7%。
分別下調2020年和2021年每股盈利預測20.4%和13.8%至2.218元人民幣和3.046元人民幣。由於受到新型冠狀病毒爆發的影響,公司預期整體零售銷售額在2020年上半年將同比下滑10%-15%。公司預期2020年下半年業務將得到復甦。公司將會採取一些措施,包括聚焦電商業務、回購渠道庫存、向分銷商提供補貼以及更加嚴格的費用控制政策。因此我們將2020年和2021年的收入和毛利率預測同時下調。
下調目標價至69.80港元但維持“買入”。基於安踏所實施的“單聚焦+多品牌+全渠道”戰略,我們相信安踏將比同業公司更好的從疫情中恢復,並且我們維持對公司長期增長的信心。我們預測公司的每股盈利將在2019-2022年期間保持23.8%的年複合增長率。我們下調目標價以反映對盈利預測的調整。新的目標價分別相當於28.0倍、20.4倍和16.5倍2020年、2021年和2022年市盈率,以及19.1%的上漲空間,因此我們維持“買入”評級。

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