郵儲銀行(01658.HK)回顧2019年,夯實既有優勢,快速推進零售轉型,維持“買入”評級
機構:國盛證券
評級:買入
業績高增長,ROE穩步提升。2019全年營收、PPOP、利潤增速分別為6.1%、9.4%、16.5%,利潤增速逐季提升。雖然受A股IPO攤薄影響,ROE(13.1%)同比依舊提升0.79pc,盈利能力穩步增強。
持續強化兩大優勢:低成本存款來源穩定,資產質量保持穩健。整體來看,郵儲銀行的報表非常乾淨、健康。資產質量各項指標均為行業前列;且穩健可持續的存款來源,為其資產端發力打下堅實的基礎。1、存款優勢:2019年末存款總額達9.3萬億元,全年增7.96%,其中個人存款穩步增9.58%,佔存款比重接近88%,且個人存款成本率(1.61%)較6月末僅提升3bps,低成本存款來源穩定。2、資產質量:1)不良率為0.86%,與2018年末持平,較6月末小幅提升4bps,主因製造業推動對公不良率(0.89%)較6月末提升19bps,零售貸款不良率(0.99%)穩步下降5bps。2)客觀指標逾期貸款佔比(1.03%)較6月末提升5bps,但逾期90天以上貸款佔比(0.58%)下降8bps,仍處於較低水平;3)加回核銷的不良生成率為0.41%,較2018年下降5bps,預計為行業最低水平。4)撥備覆蓋率(389.5%)環比9月末基本持平,撥貸比(3.35%)穩步提升12bps,風險抵禦能力穩步提升。
資產端:存貸比提升帶來盈利能力提升的邏輯,有望持續兑現。由於開展貸款業務較晚,郵儲銀行的存貸比在行業內一直較低。但在大類的資產科目中,貸款的收益率是最高的。因此,加大貸款、尤其是零售貸款的投放力度,有望使其盈利能力不斷提升。從年報來看,這個邏輯正逐步兑現。2019年其貸款增速高達16.3%,存貸比提升3.8pc到53.4%;貸款佔總資產比重提升3.5pc至47.06%。與此同時,零售貸款的投放力度不斷加大:下半年新增的2725億元貸款中,投向零售2007億元,其中按揭仍為主力(+1327億元),且加大了信用卡、消費貸的投放力度(+141億元、+408億元)。
零售轉型:迅速推進,各項業務“眼前一亮”:除零售貸款投放以外,1)個人業務貢獻的收入約1766億元,佔比提升至63.8%;利潤252億元,佔比接近40%。2)客户數及交易額快速增長:零售客户突破6億户,AUM超10萬億元。信用卡結存卡量3110萬張,同比增長35%,信用卡消費額超過9300億元,同比增長20.2%;VIP客户增長10.86%至3096萬户;財富客户增長20.7%至247.13萬户。3)代理業務全面開花:代銷保險3392億元,居於行業首位;基金、國債、信託等代銷業務均快速發展。
公司治理:加大科技投入、改善員工考核激勵制度。1)2019年信息科技投入達到了82億元,佔營收比重達近3%。應用方面:電子銀行客户數達3.18億户,手機銀行客户數達2.6億户,月活用户同比增長32%;手機銀行交易額達7.1萬億元,同比增長22%;生活場景平台“郵儲食堂”推廣首年,實名客户數即達到1139萬户。2)優化薪酬體系,更好的激勵和保留人才。2019年員工薪酬增長51.2億元,主要用於引進信息科技和中高端人才。此外,本科及以上學歷的員工佔比超過74%,較2018年提升3.4pc。
投資建議:郵儲銀行年報業績表現較好,盈利能力提升的同時資產質量保持穩健,資產業務+中收業務空間較大,中長期看成長性較好,維持“買入”評級。預計2020/2021/2022利潤增速分別為15.5%/16.0%/16.5%;BVPS為6.4/7.1/7.9元,對應2020PB、2021PB為0.81x、0.73x。
風險提示:疫情超預期擴散,宏觀經濟下行,貨幣政策轉向。

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