永升生活服務(01995.HK)：紮實的基本盤確保強勁增長，維持“買入”評級，目標價10.8港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：10.8港元
投資要點
堅持規模與品質並進，維持“買入”，上調目標價至10.8港元：公司長久堅持為業主提供品質服務，良好的口碑為增值服務及外拓開展提供有力保障，6：2：2的基礎物管、社區增值、非業主增值收入比初步目標已實現，未來還將繼續向50：50的物管增值比邁進，探索增值領域廣闊空間。我們調整盈利預測，預計公司的2020-2022年的營業收入分別為30.9、47.5及68.8億元人民幣，分別同比增長64.4%、53.8%和45.0%，歸母淨利潤分別為3.7、6.0和9.1億元人民幣，分別同比增長64.6%、62.3%和52.5%。維持“買入”評級，上調目標價至10.8港元，對應2020-2022年PE分別為40、25、16倍。
長期目標在管面積五年十倍，未來2-3年在管面積與收入仍將快速提升：公司自2018年上市以來提出6-7年在管面積同比增長10倍達到4億方的目標，目前仍按照既定計劃快速向前發展。基於旭輝地產每年穩步面積供給及公司依託品質服務外拓、擴展增值服務，預計未來2-3年在管面積與收入仍將快速提升。
淨利潤同比增長超預期，維持30%派息率：2019年公司收入達到18.8億元，過往5年維持54%的複合增速，分業務來看，物管服務、非業主增值服務及社區增值服務分別佔比57%、17%、26%，業主增值服務佔比顯著提升；淨利潤達到2.48億元同比增長148.4%，超過我們預期7%。2019年公司派發末期股息每股0.0479港元，派息率為歸母淨利潤的30%。
基礎物管毛利率保持在22%內，社區增值服務對毛利貢獻躍居最大：2019年公司物業管理服務、非業主增值及社區增值服務毛利率分別為22.1%、21.9%、51.2%，物管服務毛利率預計長期繼續維持在20%-22%範圍內。毛利佔比來看，物業管理服務、非業主增值及社區增值服務分別佔毛利的42.6%、12.8%及44.6%，社區增值服務佔比進一步提升，成為毛利貢獻最大來源。
風險提示：1）業務擴張不及預期；2）物業管理滿意度降低；3）物業管理費提價受阻；4）物業管理費收繳率降低。
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