中國光大國際(00257.HK):2019年全年業績優於預期
機構:中泰證券
2019年全年股東淨利潤同比上升20.5%
在(一)環保能源(例如:垃圾發電)、(二)綠色環保(例如:生物質利用、危廢處理、光伏及風力發電)、(三)環保水務(例如:污水處理)三大業務持續發展下,公司2019年全年股東淨利潤同比上升20.5%至港幣52.0億(見圖表1),高於市場預測之港幣51.5億。因為較低利潤的建築收入佔總收入之比率由2018年的61.0%上升至2019年的63.5%,毛利率相應地由34.6%下跌至30.5%。雖然如此,行政開支佔比及實質税率皆下降,股東淨利潤率由15.9%温和下跌至13.9%。
全球最大垃圾發電投資及運營商
公司積極擴容,新增項目投資額由2018年的人民幣235.2億增加至人民幣316.6億。截至2019年12月31日,公司手上項目投資金額達到人民幣1,238.0億。公司業務遍及全國23個省(市)、自治區,覆蓋187個地區,並立足於德國、波蘭及越南等海外市場(見圖表2)。光大國際表示,公司擁有中國垃圾發電市場的約五分之一佔有率,並已成為全球最大垃圾發電投資及運營商。
克服新冠肺炎爆發所帶來的短期挑戰
光大國際表示,在近期新冠肺炎爆發下,公司三月份復工復產率已達到90%以上,並相信業務將漸漸回覆正常。我們相信公司可克服新冠肺炎爆發所帶來的短期挑戰。我們認為,中期而言,公司更需要應付垃圾發電行業的國家補貼政策改變之風險。長遠來説,垃圾處理費上調及用者自付制度形成將有利行業發展。
公司估值低
公司2019年市盈率為4.7倍,按彭博市場綜合預測,2020年市盈率則只是3.9倍。公司估值低。若有利好行業政策出台,公司可獲得市場重估。
風險提示:(一)新能源補貼被取消;(二)應收賬款風險惡化;(三)項目開發延誤。

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