康師傅控股(00322.HK)：利潤增速高於預期，方便麪和飲料市佔率穩定，維持“買入”評級，目標價16.24 港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：16.24 港元
核心觀點：
2019年業績超過我們預期。2019年公司銷售收入61,978百萬元，同比增長2.13%，毛利19,759百萬元，同比增長5.51%。2019年公司毛利率為31.88%，同比上漲1.02個百分點；毛利率增長主要由於減税利好、部分原材料價格下降。2019年公司實現EBITDA8,542百萬元，同比增長15.8%;受益於毛利率增長，資產活化帶來的收益和其他經營費用的減少，2019年歸母淨利潤同比增長35.22%至33.31億。
方便麪業務增長穩定，市佔率維持第一。飲料部分總體利潤持平，毛利率提升。2019年公司方便麪營業收入253億元，同比增長5.79%，佔公司營業收入40.82%，方便麪產品按銷量市場佔有率為43.3%，位居中國市場第一位。2019年飲料銷售收入356億元，同比增長0.81%；其中茶和水飲料銷售收入15,579和3,114百萬元，同比減少0.7%和28.99%；果汁和碳酸飲料銷售收入為4,670百萬元和12,237百萬元，同比增長8.51%和11.91%；受益於產品升級和部分原材料價格下降，飲品總體毛利率上升2.43個百分點至33.69%。
預計2020-2021年業績分別為0.57元/股、0.59元/股。預計公司繼續推行產品升級策略，發揮多品類多價格帶的優勢，推動公司收入增長。受新冠肺炎疫情影響公司方便麪銷量增長，但飲品銷售將承壓。預計2020-2021年EPS分別為0.57和0.59元人民幣每股，當前價格對應2020-2021年PE為19.85和19.30；預計未來兩年公司收入增長穩定，基於PE估值法，維持合理估值為2020年26倍的PE，合理價值為16.24港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。原材料價格波動風險；核心產品系列銷售大幅下滑；食品安全問題。注：本文除特別説明外，均使用人民幣為貨幣幣種。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
