You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
华兴证券下调内地首季经济预测至收缩5% 向七大「新基建」倾斜
阿思达克 03-20 15:13
华兴证券研究部发表针对疫情影响的第六份深度报告。考虑到疫情对生产、投资、消费及进出口的影响,该行将中国2020年第一季度和全年的GDP同比增长率从4.1%和5.6%,分别下调至-5%和3.5%。在该行的乐观场景和悲观场景假设中,2020年第一季度和全年的GDP同比增长率分别为-2%/4.3%,及-7.5%/2.8%。

该行宏观及策略研究主管庞溟认为,目前宏观政策的首要重点将是稳就业。国务院总理李克强在3月10日国务院常务会议上指出:「只要今年就业稳住了,经济增速高一点低一点都没什麽了不起的。」庞溟认为,这说明决策层可能认为中国经济有韧性接受暂时放缓的GDP增长速度。在疫情的扰动下,2020年GDP与2010年相比翻一番的既定目标设定为推迟一到两个季度完成是完全可以理解的。庞溟继续预计政策刺激和需求释放,有助於宏观经济从今年下半年起企稳反弹。

庞溟认为,在全球经济放缓、全球供应链扰动、内外需疲弱等因素影响下,基建投资的拉动作用将更为重要。华兴证券指出,目前地方债尤其是专项债的发行节奏加快,但总体规模尚未有显着增长。该行认为预算赤字率和基建规模还有一定的提升空间,并将加速向5G基建、特高压、城际高速铁路和城际轨道交通、新能源汽车充电桩、大数据中心、人工智能、工业互联网等七大「新基建」领域倾斜。

华兴证券的科技硬件和软件行业分析师认为,「新基建」加速,将利好5G+云产业链、数据中心、基础设施及服务等子版块。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account